Since 1923, when Kamal Ataturk swept the “sick man of Europe” and turned it into the Turkish Republic, the Middle East has not been so actively interested in Turkey’s political agenda. Now, with Ankara’s recent attempts to heal relations between regional actors, Middle Eastern and European powers have turned their attention back toward the far western edge of Asia.
Turkey has gone “back to its roots,” the Arab media has declared, and its newly-reactivated involvement in Middle Eastern politics is being generally well received by regional actors. However, some Turkish and regional analysts are concerned about the change in direction of Turkey’s foreign policy, as it appears to be leaning more toward the East than the West.
While in the past two years Turkey stepped in to mediate disputes involving Syria, Iraq and Iran, thus forging stronger ties with those countries, relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv have deteriorated, particularly as Turkey publically castigated Israel for military strikes on Gaza during a January 2009 economic summit in Switzerland.
The situation got worse after uncivil exchanges between Turkish and Israeli officials in recent months.
Those souring relations between the once-close allies raise the question of whether a new Middle East order is being redrawn by Ankara’s shifting priorities in the region.
For one, after decades of queuing up for European Union membership, Turkey remains outside the EU’s Schengen bloc of countries that scrapped visa requirements among citizens, but it created its own visa-free bloc with countries like Libya, Jordan, Syria and recently Lebanon.
In addition, within the framework of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s policy of smoothing relations with bordering countries, Turkey has signed several agreements with its southern neighbors which aim to increase diplomatic and economic relations in the region.
The appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu, an expert on Middle East politics, as foreign minister in 2009 initially raised concerns over Turkey’s shift in foreign policy and many in the country questioned whether Ankara was abandoning its European bid. However, Davutoglu stressed on many occasions that Turkey would not prioritize relations with either the West or the East.
However, for Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, “Turkey is distancing itself from Europe.” Cagaptay also noted that Ankara is neglecting relations with Egypt and Jordan, and has focused instead on fostering ties with mainly anti-Western countries in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, “Turkey’s role in the Middle East should not be exaggerated,” said former UNIFIL spokesperson and regional analyst Timur Goksel, who is based in Beirut.
Oytun Orhan, a Turkish researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies, contends that while concerned voices have questioned Turkey’s distancing itself from Europe, the country’s foreign policy agenda is directly compatible with Europe’s interests. “Turkey does not alienate itself from Europe. On the contrary, it enhances its importance for the European Union,” Orhan told NOW.
Moreover, Turkey and Europe share common interests, including solving Syria’s problems with the West, guaranteeing Iraq’s territorial integrity, supporting the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and providing regional stability and sustainable peace in the Middle East, he said.
However, “the only exception that doesn’t match Europe’s interest is Ankara’s close relation with Iran despite its nuclear program,” Orhan said. He noted that Turkey does not favor Iran’s nuclear program but maintains relations because the countries share a border. Turkey was also among the first countries to congratulate Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for his re-election last June, raising the eyebrows of European and American authorities, who strongly dispute the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad’s win.
Syria, for its part, accepted Turkey’s 2008 role as a mediator in peace talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv, which many have called an attempt to “Westernize” the long-isolated Syria and bring it out of the cold.
However, Turkey’s maintaining close ties with Iran and working to reconcile Syria with Western powers, who have long expressed agitation with the Assad regime’s recalcitrance on issues in Lebanon and Iraq, may result in the “elimination of Iran’s influence over Syria, although this is not directly intended,” Orhan said.
“There is no problem in opening communication channels with Middle Eastern countries such as Iran or Syria,” said Cenk Sidar, a Turkish diplomacy analyst. “Turkey should pressure those countries to implement necessary reforms.”
In regard to deteriorating relations with Israel, some Turkish analysts do not believe Ankara will maintain its impartial mediating role, while others believe that “Israel will take Turkey into consideration” while dealing with the Palestinians, said Sidar.
In the end, after receiving mixed signals from the European Union for years, Turkey’s rapprochement with the Middle East does not appear as much of a surprise.
And at any rate, as a modern, democratic and secular country, Turkey can positively influence sustainable peace that would benefit every actor in the region while providing security in its own backyard.