The Lebanese Armed Forces has been placed on high alert in anticipation of large-scale military maneuvers by the Israeli government, as the latter prepares to undertake the largest nation-wide drill in its 61-year history. While the Lebanese government has received an assurance from the Israeli government that the military maneuvers, which were planned months in advance, are defensive in nature, they have sparked concern among top Lebanese military and political figures, outrage from Hezbollah and a business-as-usual response from UNIFIL.
The Lebanese government has registered its concern about the Israeli measures through diplomatic channels, after Hezbollah demanded a diplomatic response from the state.
On Sunday, Israel will begin five days of military exercises to prepare its government institutions and civilian population for a possible war. Organized by the Home Front Command, the drills will simulate rocket attacks from Gaza and Lebanon and missile strikes from Iran and Syria, Israeli Defense Ministry Spokesman Shlomo Dror told AFP on Wednesday.
While UNIFIL Spokesperson Yasmina Bouziane refused to comment on whether the Israelis have briefed the UN peacekeeping forces, based in southern Lebanon, on the details of the maneuvers, Information Minister Tarek Mitri told NOW that UNIFIL had informed the Lebanese government about the objectives of the exercises and passed it a letter from the Israeli government "assuring us that the maneuvers are defensive with no hostile objectives."
This reassurance, however, has failed to fully calm local nerves, particularly as they fall in the week before Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections.
"This has not precipitated all our worries... and we are using all diplomatic means to make sure the exercises will not violate [UN Security Council Resolution] 1701 or turn into hostile operations that threaten Lebanon," Mitri said.
In response to the drills, the Supreme Defense Council has taken increased security measures in the South in response, according to An-Nahar, and has placed the LAF on heightened alert. In contrast, Bouziane denies UNIFIL has taken any special measures in response to the Israeli maneuvers.
"The situation is quiet on the ground in the South, and UNIFIL is working with the Lebanese Armed Forces to ensure there is no violation of Resolution 1701 or the Blue Line," she said, referring to the demarcation line between Lebanon and Israel.
But one party is not taking such an aloof response. The maneuvers have angered Hezbollah, which first brought them up during a national dialogue session in late April and has since said it has made preparations in order to defend Lebanon, if necessary, during this period.
"Always, we see Israel as threatening Lebanon, and we have to be aware of the Israeli maneuvers. Anyway, the Resistance will be ready for all possibilities," Ali Fayyad, Hezbollah candidate in the southern district of Marjayoun-Hasbaya, told NOW Lebanon.
"Everyone in the South is concerned and worried about these maneuvers."
While Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah initially slammed the Lebanese state for its failure to prepare adequately for the drills, Fayyad said the party has since been impressed by the state's response.
"Now they are taking these maneuvers seriously. The president's invitation to the Supreme Defense Council is a positive step," he said, referring to the Tuesday meeting between President Michel Sleiman, various cabinet ministers and the council.
Sending multi-dimensional messages
The five-day drill is being used by the Israeli government to send many "multi-directional messages," according to retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University.
Hanna linked the maneuvers to new Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's concern about Iran's nuclear ambitions, saying they represented a continuation of the 2008 aerial drill over the eastern Mediterranean, which was widely seen as preparation for a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
On the Lebanese front, the drills could be a response to Israel's tactical failures during the 2006 July War, and also to send a message to Hezbollah to discourage it from retaliating to the 2008 assassination of former military commander Imad Mugniyah, which the party has blamed on Israel.
Hanna said the maneuvers may also be designed to influence the crucial Christian vote in the June 7 elections.
"It will play on the psyche of the Christian voters about the danger Hezbollah may bring to Lebanon – another July War. But now Israel will deal with Lebanon as a state responsible,” Hanna said. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barack recently stated that Israel would not distinguish between the institutions of the state and Hezbollah if the party won a majority in the elections.
“The army will be a target," Hanna said.
Hanna says Hezbollah's determination to force a response from the government has been unusual. By demanding the government act, Hezbollah is, in this situation, calling on it to pursue diplomatic channels to resolve a matter of international concern – something unusual in a party that insists on acting outside of state control.
Mitri suggests the government was already dealing with the maneuvers even before Hezbollah called on it to. President Sleiman has continued to display his ongoing preference for using international institutions and diplomatic channels to flag concern about the exercises by raising the issue with US Vice President Joe Biden during his recent visit to Beirut. Sleiman has also met with defense chiefs to discuss the situation, and the government sent on Wednesday a letter of protest to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
This diplomatic work, in conjunction with the ongoing coordination between the LAF and UNIFIL, is all the Lebanese state can do to voice its objection and prepare itself for the military maneuvers set to take place just below its southern border.