Lebanon is currently dealing with escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, the collapse of ceasefire negotiations, the ongoing electricity crisis, and the looming financial risks tied to potential money laundering vulnerabilities in the country's cash-based economy
In one of the most intense escalations of border conflict in over ten months, Hezbollah unleashed a barrage of rockets and drones towards Israel early Sunday, igniting fears of a wider war in the region. The Israeli occupation forces, responding with around 100 jets, targeted southern Lebanon in response. Missiles were seen streaking through the dawn sky as air raid sirens blared across northern Israel, and distant explosions illuminated the horizon. Smoke billowed over homes in the town of Khiam, near Lebanon’s southern border.
Hezbollah confirmed the launch of 320 rockets and drones as retaliation for the recent assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. While Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared the operation “completed as planned,” in a televised speech yesterday it remains uncertain whether the exchange will halt further escalation. Nasrallah emphasized that the attack was a direct response to the killing of Shukr and targeted the Glilot base north of Tel Aviv, which houses the Mossad and military intelligence group Unit 8200.
One Israeli navy soldier was confirmed dead, while three casualties were confirmed in Lebanon. Despite the heavy exchange, both Hezbollah and Israeli officials signaled a temporary pause in hostilities, though they warned that further strikes could be imminent.
Nasrallah expressed confidence that Hezbollah’s show of force had restored deterrence, potentially curbing future Israeli actions in Lebanon. The coming days will reveal whether this fragile calm holds or if the region is poised for further confrontation.
Hezbollah’s response, though long anticipated, struck with an unpredictability that sent ripples of fear across the region. Tensions had been simmering since the assassination of Fuad Shukr, with many expecting retaliation, but the scale and intensity of Sunday’s attack took many by surprise. The sheer volume of rockets and drones launched deep into Israeli territory marked a significant escalation, heightening concerns of a potential full-scale war.
Celebrations followed in the southern suburbs where people, mostly on motorcycles, took to the streets to celebrate Hezbollah’s response.
In Lebanon
13/8/2024: In his fifth visit since the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza, US Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut to continue diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions along the Lebanese-Israeli border, which have been ongoing for over ten months. Upon arriving Tuesday evening, Hochstein met with Lebanese army commander General Joseph Aoun to discuss the army’s readiness and needs, particularly in the area south of the Litani River, where around 4,000 Lebanese troops are stationed across three sectors, as outlined by UN Resolution 1701.
Sources close to the visit highlighted Hochstein’s emphasis on ensuring that the Lebanese government does not align its stance with Hezbollah, which ties the ceasefire in southern Lebanon to a halt in Gaza. He stressed that such a position could increase the risk of further escalation rather than help achieve peace along the southern border.
25/8/2024: Salim Hoss, the five-time former Prime Minister of Lebanon who led the country through some of its most turbulent periods, passed away on Sunday at the age of 94, according to a statement by current caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Mikati praised Hoss as the “conscience of Lebanon” and expressed deep sadness over his death, noting that it comes at a time when the country is in urgent need of moral guidance.
Mikati described Hoss as a distinguished economist and a model of integrity and expertise, who consistently prioritized the nation’s welfare and the needs of its people above all else.
26/8/2024: Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib received a call from EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, during which he briefed Borrell on the latest developments in southern Lebanon and the wider region.
Borrell expressed his support for Lebanon’s position and urged the swift implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Both officials shared concerns over the lack of progress in the recent round of ceasefire talks for Gaza, which were facilitated by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, and held in Cairo after initial discussions in Doha.
They stressed the importance of continuing diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza as a key step to de-escalating tensions and preventing a broader conflict. Bou Habib also called on the EU to apply pressure on Israel to halt its attacks on Lebanon and comply with Resolution 1701.
26/8/2024: Algeria has announced plans to supply Lebanon with fuel oil as the country grapples with a severe electricity crisis fueled by its ongoing economic collapse. Algerian Prime Minister Nadir Larbaoui, following instructions from President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, informed Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati of the decision during a phone call. Larbaoui conveyed that Algeria would immediately provide fuel oil to help power Lebanon’s electricity plants and restore energy to the nation, according to a statement from the Algerian government.
Lebanon’s last remaining power plant was forced to shut down on August 17 due to a lack of fuel, leaving the entire country without electricity. The Electricity Company of Lebanon (EDL) announced that the Zahrani plant’s final generator had run out of diesel, resulting in a nationwide blackout affecting critical infrastructure, including the airport, port, water systems, and sewage treatment facilities.
In The Region
No ceasefire in sight: The Gaza ceasefire talks held in Cairo on Sunday ended without an agreement, as both Hamas and Israel rejected several compromise proposals put forward by mediators, according to Egyptian security sources. This outcome casts doubt on the success of the US-backed efforts to end the ten-month conflict.
Despite the setback, a senior US official described the discussions as “constructive,” with all sides showing a willingness to continue working toward a final agreement. Talks are expected to proceed in the coming days through working groups to resolve remaining issues, with teams remaining in Cairo.
Key sticking points include Israel’s presence in the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors, and disagreements over the release of Palestinian detainees. Israeli officials expressed concerns over certain prisoners, demanding their departure from Gaza if freed. Hamas accused Israel of backtracking on previous commitments, particularly regarding troop withdrawals from the Philadelphi Corridor and new conditions related to displaced Palestinians returning to Gaza.
More death, more horror: The Gaza Health Ministry reported on Sunday that at least 40,405 Palestinians have been killed and 93,468 injured since Israel’s military war began on October 7. Over the past 24 hours, 71 people were killed and 112 injured in what the ministry described as three separate massacres carried out by Israel in the Gaza Strip.
More power loss: Iraq has reaffirmed its commitment to providing fuel to Lebanon’s power plants in an effort to alleviate the country’s ongoing electricity crisis, following an announcement from Lebanon’s electricity company that its fuel supplies have run out.
Last week, an Iraqi government spokesperson attributed the delay in fuel shipments to “technical” and “logistical” issues related to transportation. The spokesperson assured that a new fuel shipment is expected to reach Lebanon “in the coming days.”
No new relationship: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated on Sunday that attempts to improve relations with Turkey have yet to produce any significant outcomes. In a speech to the Syrian parliament, Assad remarked that despite the sincere efforts of mediators from Russia, Iran, and Iraq, the initiatives have not achieved notable results. Turkey cut off relations with Syria in 2011 following the start of the Syrian civil war, during which it supported rebels trying to overthrow Assad, who regards these rebels as terrorists.
Bitter memory: On August 21, Syrians commemorate the 11th anniversary of the eastern Ghouta massacre, widely recognized as the most horrific atrocity in Syria since the start of the revolution. Despite enduring relentless hardships and suffering, the anniversary serves as a poignant reminder of their ongoing struggle for justice and peace.
Sudden death: Nour Zuhair Al-Muzaffar, the leading suspect in the theft of the century, was involved in a serious traffic accident in Al-Hadath, a district of Beirut. He was taken to the hospital for emergency treatment.
According to Lebanese media, medical examinations revealed that Al-Muzaffar sustained injuries to his spine, neck, and rib cage, along with multiple bruises on his body, head, and feet.
Weird tweet: Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei tweeted that “the battle between the Husayni Front and the Yazidi Front manifests in various forms: in the age of swords and spears, it takes one shape; in the era of nuclear power and artificial intelligence, it takes another. In the era of propaganda and media through poetry, declarations, and rhetoric, it assumes yet another form, and in the age of the internet, quantum technology, and beyond, it takes a different shape.”
What We’re Reading
Obstacles on the path to peace: Political journalist Ramzi Abu Ismail discusses the collapse of recent negotiations between Israel and Hamas, attributing the breakdown to deep-rooted mistrust and conflicting agendas. Despite mediation efforts led by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, the talks fell apart due to last-minute changes, primarily from the Israeli side. Israel’s introduction of new security measures, such as stricter border controls and modifications to prisoner exchange conditions, was met with resistance from Hamas, who saw these changes as undermining their position. This deviation from the original terms escalated tensions, ultimately causing the negotiations to fail.
Go Fund My Health: Journalist Rodayna Raydan writes about the devastating impact of Lebanon’s economic collapse on healthcare access, as soaring medical costs have forced many individuals to forgo necessary treatments. With the Lebanese pound’s value plummeting and inflation skyrocketing, basic healthcare has become a luxury for much of the population. Raydan highlights how many are now turning to crowdfunding and social media platforms to cover their medical expenses, as government subsidies have vanished, and essential medical supplies are increasingly unaffordable.
Fighting illicit finance: Journalist Maan Barazy reports on the imminent risk of Lebanon being listed on the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF) grey list. Despite efforts by Banque du Liban (BDL), experts close to the issue highlight concerns over Lebanon’s cash-based economy, which is seen as facilitating money laundering activities for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Barazy explains how cash transactions increase the risk of financial crimes and could undo Lebanon’s pre-2019 progress on anti-money laundering measures. Placement on the grey list could result in reduced foreign direct investment and heightened business costs for Lebanese companies due to increased due diligence requirements.
Lebanon +
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