When Benjamin Netanyahu spoke, the region shuddered. On December 26, Israel became the first country to formally recognize the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as an independent state, instantly redrawing geopolitical lines across the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and beyond. This was not a routine diplomatic gesture. Netanyahu framed the decision as “in the spirit of the Abraham Accords” and announced plans for immediate cooperation in agriculture, health, technology, and the economy. Recognition elevated Somaliland from a long-ignored de facto state into a strategic asset at a key maritime chokepoint.
Washington, meanwhile, remains cautious. President Trump emphasized that the United States has not recognized Somaliland, though he left the door open, noting “all options…are being considered.” The ambiguity amplifies the impact: Somaliland has entered the realm of actionable geopolitics.
The backlash was swift. Twenty-one Arab, Islamic, and African states, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Djibouti, the Comoros, Yemen, Oman, the Maldives, Palestine, and Gambia, issued a joint declaration rejecting Israel’s recognition.
Their message was clear. Israel’s move violates international law and the UN Charter. It threatens peace and security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. It undermines Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It sets a dangerous precedent for state fragmentation. Any linkage to Palestinian displacement is categorically rejected.
They consider this is not only a defense of Somalia; it is a signal that a geopolitical red line has been crossed.
Somaliland has existed as a de facto state since declaring independence in 1991. It has defined borders, a permanent population, an elected government, a constitution, its own currency, and a level of security unmatched in much of the Horn of Africa. Hargeisa serves as the political capital, while Berbera has quietly become a strategic port. Investments by DP World and connections to Ethiopia have steadily increased Somaliland’s regional value. Israel did not create Somaliland; it weaponized its reality.
Post October 7, two mega blocks are forming across the corridor from India to Greece, covering the Gulf/Indian Ocean, Red Sea, and Eastern Mediterranean.
Islamist-aligned axis: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, Damascus, Hamas, Palestinian Authority, Somalia, Houthi Yemen, Port Sudan.
Anti-Islamist alignment: UAE, Bahrain, India, South Yemen, Somaliland, Nyala government (Sudan), Kurdish entities in Iraq and Syria, Druze of Syria, Israel, Cyprus, Greece.
Control of chokepoints equals control of trade, energy, and leverage. Somaliland sits at the southern gate of the Red Sea, facing Bab al-Mandab. Israel’s move is about pre-emption and strategic positioning, not mere diplomacy.
Why recognize Somaliland now, while Gaza burns, Egypt refuses mass displacement, and the two-state solution quietly collapses? The question raised is: why now, under these circumstances, as the Middle East is being “re-mapped”? Did Egypt’s refusal to receive Gazans push Israel to seek an alternative territory for a collective transfer? Would this transfer, if it occurs, include Palestinians from the West Bank, or at least a large portion of them, thereby nullifying the resolutions of the 2002 Beirut Summit and the two-state solution?
This situation connects directly to Somaliland’s rising significance. Such a move would open the door to a massive wave of settlement in the West Bank. It could also serve as a pathway to addressing diaspora issues, particularly for Palestinians in Lebanon and Syria who have not been granted citizenship for demographic reasons, unlike in Jordan.
Of course, all of this would come with significant incentives that neither the president of Somaliland nor the beleaguered people of Gaza, nor West Bank residents facing the threat of a new war, nor those living in diaspora camps, could resist, especially if the international community succeeds in halting UNRWA, the refugee agency.
The president of Somaliland would gain international recognition for his state, which he has been striving for almost 35 years. This would be accompanied by economic aid through partnership agreements with Israel and this emerging state, ensuring control over the entrance to the Red Sea toward the Horn of Africa. In turn, this would provide security for the southern approach to the Ben Gurion Canal in the near future.
Timing is everything. Somaliland is a strategic contingency, a geographic pressure valve. Recognition today creates options tomorrow. It offers Somaliland international legitimacy and economic support, while giving Israel influence over one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors. In a region where geography dictates leverage, this move is as much about long-term strategy as short-term diplomacy.
Somaliland remains a state without widespread recognition, yet it is no longer silent. Israel’s decision exposes a universal truth: geography overrides law, and power tests principles. History does not reward moral certainty alone; it rewards those who read power, timing, and geography with ruthless clarity. Causes that fail to translate into international leverage are abandoned by history.
Somaliland has moved from the shadows of denial into the heart of geopolitical confrontation.
The question is whether the region is prepared for what its recognition sets in motion.
Elissa E Hachem is a journalist and political writer specializing in regional affairs and governance. Former Regional Media Advisor at the U.S. State Department’s Arabic Regional Media Hub, with broad experience in strategic communication across government and private sectors.
The views in this story reflect those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the beliefs of NOW
