Hezbollah holds back from Iran-Israel conflict, but ongoing Israeli attacks keep Lebanon on edge
A tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to take hold on Tuesday following a rocky start, even as tensions flared once more along the Israeli border. In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump voiced his irritation with both nations, saying their long-standing hostilities had left them blind to reason.
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a major victory over Iran’s nuclear program, a classified U.S. intelligence report cast doubt on that claim, indicating that the recent strikes only caused temporary disruptions. The assessment, shared with the Associated Press by two individuals briefed on the matter, directly contradicted Trump’s assertion that the program had been “completely obliterated”—a statement the White House doubled down on, dismissing the report as inaccurate.
Meanwhile, Iran’s military denied launching attacks despite reports of missile interceptions and explosions in northern Israel earlier in the day. Trump, before leaving for a NATO summit, accused both sides of breaching the ceasefire, though he singled out Israel, long considered a close U.S. ally, for escalating the situation unnecessarily. He also questioned whether Iran’s response was deliberate or a misfire, suggesting that the initial breach came from Tel Aviv.
The possibility of Hezbollah entering the fray has fueled anxiety among Lebanese civilians and officials alike, especially in the south, where communities continue to reel from months of displacement and Israeli bombardment. With Lebanon already locked in a precarious ceasefire with Israel, many fear that further Israeli aggression, particularly preemptive or retaliatory strikes could drag Hezbollah, and by extension all of Lebanon, into a broader war. The country, already grappling with economic collapse and political paralysis, is in no position to absorb another round of violence sparked by Israel’s regional confrontations.
Uncertain times
Despite rising tensions in the region, Lebanon’s political leadership has signaled a clear intention to stay out of the Iran-Israel confrontation. On Monday, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri reaffirmed that Hezbollah had no plans to enter the conflict, echoing reports that quiet discussions have been underway between the Lebanese government, Hezbollah, and the Amal Movement to ensure Lebanon remains on the sidelines.
According to sources cited by Asharq al-Awsat, Hezbollah has no interest in offering Israel a justification to escalate and widen the war front, particularly as Israel continues to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty. Israeli forces have carried out repeated airstrikes on Lebanese territory since the supposed ceasefire last November, and they continue to occupy five strategic hilltops in the south.
Local newspapers also reported this week that Lebanese authorities have engaged directly with Hezbollah to secure assurances that it will not intervene in the Iran-Israel confrontation. These guarantees, they said, aim to shield the country from a devastating new round of violence at a time when Lebanon is still reeling from war damage, mass displacement, and a worsening economic crisis.
However, in an interview published Monday, Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem warned that any attack on Iran would carry heavy consequences for the entire region. Speaking to the party-affiliated al-Ahed news site, he condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats against Iran’s Supreme Leader as “vile” and a sign of “weakness,” insisting that Iran would prevail as the wronged party in what he called an American-Israeli campaign of aggression.
Qassem also addressed Israel’s continued strikes and occupation in Lebanon, voicing support for the Lebanese state’s diplomatic efforts but stressing that Hezbollah would act if those fail. He reiterated that the group’s military capabilities remain intact and are being strengthened, while reconstruction of the south remains a top priority. Despite the destruction, he said, the resilience of southern communities and popular backing for the resistance ensure Hezbollah’s continued role in Lebanon’s defense and political life.
Perhaps not
Journalist Marwan ElAmin told NOW that Hezbollah will not back Iran militarily in its recent war with Israel, highlighting Lebanon’s careful position in the regional tensions. According to ElAmin, despite the heavy involvement of Iran and the U.S. in the recent strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, Lebanon remained outside the military fallout.
ElAmin points out that Hezbollah’s remaining forces are being preserved deliberately, with local interests prioritized over broader regional conflicts. “Hezbollah did not intervene not because it lacks the ability, but because the decision from Iran was to keep Lebanon out of this war,” he notes. For Iran, he says, any military involvement by Hezbollah would have caused more damage to the party, which the Iranian regime does not desire as to not jeopardize its influence.
ElAmin adds that Iran only permits Hezbollah to enter such wars if its own existence is seriously threatened. “If the war had escalated to threaten the Iranian regime’s survival, a religious edict would have been issued for Hezbollah to join. But since the war remained focused solely on Iran’s nuclear project, Iran chose to keep Hezbollah’s role limited.”
On Hezbollah’s current strength, ElAmin explains that while its military side might have been affected, the group remains politically strong within Lebanon. “Hezbollah still holds full influence internally, guiding key political figures and security decisions, effectively shaping Lebanon’s internal stability,” he says.
Regarding Israel’s ongoing strikes inside Lebanon, ElAmin confirms that these attacks are expected to continue, targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure and leadership. Despite this pressure, ElAmin warns that Lebanon as a whole is suffering, living under constant tension and missing opportunities for political and economic reform.
Finally, ElAmin assesses the broader impact on Iran: “Iran has sustained significant losses, and its nuclear and ballistic projects have been severely damaged.”
In conclusion, ElAmin suggests Hezbollah will remain cautious and avoid joining the war in support of Iran unless Iran’s regime itself faces an existential threat — a scenario that has not yet arisen despite ongoing hostilities with Israel.
Although the Iran-Israel attack have come to an end, Lebanon remains on edge. The ongoing Israeli strikes and military pressure continue to cast a shadow over the country’s fragile peace. Hezbollah’s decision to stay out of the fighting has so far helped prevent a wider war, but the persistent Israeli threats keep everyday life uncertain for many Lebanese. With tensions simmering just beneath the surface, the hope for lasting calm feels fragile—and the risk of renewed Israeli violence still hangs heavy over the region.
