As the new year unfolds, Lebanon remains deeply scarred by the devastating events of 2024. The war with Israel, marked by relentless airstrikes, ground incursions, and unprecedented levels of destruction, has reshaped the country’s social, economic, and political landscape. Despite a ceasefire agreement, its fragile implementation has left the nation teetering on the brink of further instability.

In areas heavily affected by the war, reconstruction efforts are slow and sporadic. Entire neighborhoods lie in ruins, with residents struggling to rebuild amidst a collapsing economy and limited international support. The destruction of critical infrastructure, including roads, schools, and hospitals, has further exacerbated the challenges.

The ceasefire brokered in late 2024 remains tenuous at best. Violations are reported almost daily, with Israeli drones, airstrikes, and incursions becoming routine provocations. These actions have undermined the fragile peace and heightened tensions along the border. The Lebanese government, paralyzed by political deadlock and financial crisis, has been unable to assert control or negotiate effectively.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s statements about Lebanon’s readiness to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 have done little to reassure a war-weary population. Political analysts argue that the resolution’s stipulations remain a distant reality, given the lack of enforcement and the continued Israeli military activities.

The war has dealt a crushing blow to Lebanon’s economy, already weakened by years of mismanagement and corruption. Tourism, once a lifeline for the country, has ground to a halt. In 2023, Lebanon welcomed over two million visitors; in 2024, that number plummeted to under 200,000. Historic sites, vibrant festivals, and coastal resorts that once drew tourists from around the world now stand empty, stark reminders of what the country has lost.

The economic repercussions extend beyond tourism. Agricultural exports, a vital sector in southern Lebanon, have declined due to damaged farmlands and disrupted supply chains. Unemployment has surged, with many businesses closing their doors permanently. Inflation remains rampant, and the Lebanese lira continues to lose value against the dollar, plunging more families into poverty.

Meanwhile, the breaches to the ceasefire are ongoing. On Thursday, the Israeli military announced that it had conducted an airstrike targeting and destroying medium-range rocket launchers at a Hezbollah site in southern Lebanon. According to a statement, the Israeli military claimed it had first requested the Lebanese army to dismantle the launchers but proceeded with the attack after receiving no response.

Lebanon at a crossroads: potential for change or deepening crisis

Ziad Abdul Samad, Executive Director of the Arab NGO Network for Development (ANND), told NOW that Lebanon faces two diverging paths: one leading to meaningful reform and state rebuilding, and another toward continued collapse.

According to Abdul Samad, there is a “serious potential for change,” which could lay a foundation for rebuilding state institutions, repairing Lebanon’s relations with the Arab world and the international community, and restoring public trust. He stressed the urgent need for a government capable of implementing significant economic and financial reforms.

“This state must regain the people’s trust and adopt a roadmap for economic recovery,” he said, adding that Lebanon could attract investments and partnerships if the right steps are taken.

On the other hand, he warned that failure to act decisively could deepen the crisis. “Lebanon is no longer in a position to withstand further deterioration,” Abdul Samad cautioned, suggesting that a continuation of the current trajectory would lead to more fragmentation and instability.

Abdul Samad criticized the current government’s inability to implement a ceasefire or address pressing security concerns. He pointed to the ongoing Israeli attacks, which have targeted Hezbollah sites under the pretext of neutralizing threats, as evidence of Lebanon’s precarious sovereignty. He argued that these attacks, coupled with the Lebanese Army’s limited capacity to assert control, underscore the urgent need for national defense reforms.

He highlighted the importance of empowering the Lebanese Army to take full control of the country’s borders, particularly in the south. “The army must have the political backing to fulfill its mission,” Abdul Samad noted, emphasizing that no armed group outside state authority should exist.

Abdul Samad underscored the need for a President capable of transcending sectarian quotas and restoring confidence in Lebanon’s governance. “We need a President who represents sovereignty and can rebuild relations with the Arab world and the international community,” he said. However, he warned against electing a leader who merely perpetuates the sectarian power-sharing system.

He also called for a comprehensive national dialogue to address political, economic, and financial issues, as well as reforms to attract investments and rebuild the economy. “There are Lebanese investors and international partners ready to return if serious reforms are enacted,” he stated.

Political experts predict that Lebanon’s upcoming presidential election in January will hinge on a few critical words: “the Army, the People, and the Resistance.” This phrase has historically served as a middle ground between proponents of state sovereignty over armed forces and Hezbollah’s insistence on legitimizing its weapons through the state.

Experts note that Hezbollah’s influence has waned following significant setbacks, including its losses in the conflict with Israel and diminished regional alliances. The group’s ability to impose its will on Lebanese society has been weakened, with growing resistance from other communities. Observers highlight that Hezbollah’s rhetoric, under Secretary General Naim Qassem, seeks to project strength despite these challenges. However, doubts about the rationale for retaining its weapons are mounting among the population.

The formation of a new government after the presidential election will likely reignite debates over including the tripartite formula in the government’s policy statement. Analysts believe key political groups, such as the Lebanese Forces and Sunni representatives, may reject this formulation, emboldened by shifting regional dynamics and Hezbollah’s perceived decline. Should this happen, Hezbollah could face limited options, with experts suggesting that attempts to coerce or boycott the government would risk isolating the Shiite community further, especially as Speaker Nabih Berri faces internal and international pressures.

Looking ahead

Abdul Samad expressed cautious optimism but acknowledged the challenges ahead. “We are still at a crossroads,” he remarked. He urged for swift action to prevent further collapse, emphasizing that the path to recovery requires national unity and a commitment to sovereignty and reform. “Lebanon’s fate depends on our ability to make the right decisions now,” Abdul Samad concluded.

The events of 2024 have left an indelible mark, and the path to recovery will be long and fraught with challenges. Political reform, economic stabilization, and the implementation of a robust ceasefire mechanism are critical to the country’s future.

For now, Lebanon remains a nation in mourning, grappling with the weight of its past and the uncertainty of its future. But amidst the rubble, the enduring spirit of its people offers a reminder of the resilience that has defined this small but defiant country for decades.