The political parabola of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is threatened by a national strike among Israel’s squares demanding the return of hostages and end of war in Gaza: will it be enough to undermine the foundations of his decades-long career?
Over the past few days, thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets demanding that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sign a deal which would stop the war and lead to the return of the nearly 100 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. These protests, which have been happening almost weekly since October 7, returned with renewed furor over the last week after the Israeli army recovered the bodies of six hostages in Gaza. The Histadrut, Israel’s national labour union, announced it was striking in solidarity with the protestors too. Suddenly, everyone was predicting the collapse of the Netanyahu government and drastic changes in Israel.
However, is the government really going to collapse? If one looks at the surface of things, it seems to be a foregone conclusion: Netanyahu was already wildly unpopular, and the October 7 attacks, as well as his perceived refusal to sign a ceasefire agreement to save the remaining Israeli hostages, have destroyed his image as ‘Mr. Security.’ He continues to remain under trial for several corruption and abuse of power charges, which he tried to circumvent or delay as much as possible by unilaterally passing legislation which weakened the Supreme Court and gave the Knesset override authority over the court.
If one looks deeper, however, there is no logical possibility of Netanyahu leaving power, at least voluntarily, until he completes his term in 2026. His coalition is composed of partners who, even begrudgingly, align with him ideologically and politically. Whenever Ben Gvir or Smotrich threaten to leave the coalition, Israeli media makes a big fuss about it. But these people are descended from ideological forebears who were on the fringe of political life in Israel, and if they were to deliberately sabotage Netanyahu, the leader of a much more popular party, they would never return to mainstream Israeli politics again.
One strength which Netanyahu holds is the perception that he yields immense power and influence in Washington. From his days as deputy ambassador at Washington and his stint as UN ambassador, he has developed political connections which have been pivotal in his rise to power. Speaking flawless American English, Netanyahu has addressed Congress four times, the record for any foreign leader, even as recently as July amidst the genocide on Gaza. He is seen as someone who time and again has withstood American pressure, even challenging American presidents like Obama and Biden, to protect Israel from the many ‘existential threats’ it faces.
However, no leader rules forever, and even Netanyahu will eventually lose an election again and be removed from power. What is the issue then? Netanyahu remains prime minister for the 16th year, and even after October 7, his ratings are much better than what one might initially presume. Even when measured against his next possible contender, Benny Gantz, this latter barely takes the lead according to some polls, and most of the time Netanyahu remains the leading candidate for Prime Minister despite having a tenuous lead at best. But Netanyahu does not appoint himself Prime Minister: he is elected by Israeli voters.
The Israeli media, unlike what one might be tempted to believe, is perhaps one of the main reasons Netanyahu stayed in power. Ever since his first term as Prime Minister, he has been pilloried and attacked by the large majority of Israeli media. Netanyahu, in a masterful feast of inversion, managed to convince his voters that the media had a personal vendetta with him, gradually changing his tone to fit the trends of the age. In his followers’ eyes, he is a victim of a media witch hunt, and the media is actively conspiring to topple him against voters’ wishes.
What about alternatives? Over the years, Netanyahu has managed to defeat several competitors, ones who are constantly propped up in Israeli media as ‘saviors’ of Israel and protectors of Israelis. However, thus far, none of these candidates have been able to present a platform which would produce a parliamentary base strong enough to unseat Netanyahu. In addition, many of the competitors were people whose public appearances and charisma pale in comparison to Netanyahu, who has been regularly in the spotlight since 1982. Israelis are reluctant to trust unknown quantities when compared to their longest-serving incumbent and his unapologetic political posture.
Since Netanyahu’s reelection in 2022, Israelis have protested his judicial reform efforts, which were aimed at weakening the courts. Thus far, beyond cosmetics, they have been wildly unsuccessful. For the most part, they have attacked Netanyahu’s politics, but have failed to highlight how the occupation is the main cause of contradiction, tension, and international pressure for them. Cynically, some protestors would mention the occupation as an effect of Netanyahu’s policies, but wholeheartedly supported the invasion of Gaza and the subsequent genocide, as if these protests never happened. Today, they think that ousting Netanyahu is going to permanently end the war.
To that end, Benjamin Netanyahu is not going anywhere. At the end of the day, despite the abundance of rhetoric and performative gestures on the part of many Israelis, there is no concerted effort in Israel to address the occupation. Most Israelis do not support any form of Palestinian statehood, as shown by a Knesset vote last summer which was nearly unanimous in its rejection of Palestinian statehood, by any means necessary. And since no politician can double down on their anti-Palestine politics like Netanyahu, there is no reason Israelis might depose Netanyahu as Prime Minister in the near future.
The views in this story reflect those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the beliefs of NOW.
