Small gatherings to mark the first anniversary of the Syrian regime's collapse turned tense in several Lebanese areas where confrontations erupted between those celebrating the “historic” day and those who are pro-Assad, including supporters aligned with Hezbollah. Lebanese Security Forces broke up the clashes, exposing once again the political and sectarian divisions running through some of Lebanon’s communities.
Yesterday marked one year since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, an event that has reshaped the country’s political landscape and continues to vibrate across the region.
In Lebanon, small-scale celebrations took place in several cities, including Tripoli, Saida, and northern towns, as Syrians living in Lebanon, along with Lebanese citizens, expressed solidarity with Syrians commemorating the regime’s overthrow. Participants waved Syrian flags, held car processions, and gathered in public squares, reflecting a mix of joy and cautious optimism amid a politically sensitive environment.
Lebanon saw renewed tension and clashes during gatherings marking one year since the fall of the Assad regime. In several cities, Syrian expatriates and some Lebanese joined small celebrations, waving flags and expressing support for Syria’s new political path. But the atmosphere shifted when groups sympathetic to the former regime, including some connected to Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, confronted the celebrants, leading to brief street scuffles. Security forces eventually intervened to separate the groups and stop the situation from spreading.
The incidents highlight long-standing pressures inside Lebanon, where the Syrian conflict has shaped political loyalties, refugee debates, and local security concerns for more than a decade. Many worry that Syria’s transition could bring new tensions into Lebanon at a time when the country is already struggling with its own crises.
Across Syria, the anniversary was marked with larger public gatherings, official statements, and parades celebrating the transition from the Assad era to the interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Many Syrians took part in celebrations in Damascus, Homs, and Hama, waving flags and calling for national unity and reconstruction after years of conflict and authoritarian rule.
The anniversary was framed by the new government as a milestone in Syria’s journey toward political reform, though analysts caution that real progress remains fragile.
As Syria moves through an uncertain post-Assad phase, the impact is increasingly felt next door. While international engagement has increased, including renewed talks with the U.S.-led coalition on counter-terrorism and efforts to rebuild war-damaged infrastructure, the country remains plagued by sectarian tensions, local conflicts, and unresolved humanitarian crises. Displaced populations continue to return to their homes at a slow pace, and the transitional justice process has yet to deliver accountability for past abuses.
For Lebanon, the events in Syria carry both symbolic and practical significance. Lebanon hosts one of the largest Syrian refugee populations in the world, and developments in Syria directly affect the social and political dynamics across the border.
In Lebanon
Small gatherings were held in Beirut, Tripoli, and parts of the Beqaa on 8 December as Syrian residents in Lebanon marked the first anniversary of the collapse of the Assad regime: Celebrations ranged from fireworks to street marches, particularly in areas with large Syrian populations. However, clashes erupted where celebrants were harassed and dispersed, especially in neighborhoods historically sympathetic to Damascus by groups of Hezbollah supporters. Lebanese security forces quietly increased patrols near these gatherings to prevent larger clashes, highlighting the political sensitivities around Syria’s transition in neighboring Lebanon.
Pope Leo XIV’s visit brings a rare moment of national solidarity to Lebanon: The Pope concluded a historic visit to Lebanon on 2 December, holding a large open-air mass in Beirut, meeting religious and civic leaders, and visiting the Beirut port-blast site where he prayed with survivors’ families. His call for unity, justice and inter-communal coexistence resonated across different age groups and religions, offering many Lebanese a much-needed sense of hope amid the country’s overlapping crises.
EU moves to reinforce domestic security ahead of UNIFIL exit: On 8 December, the European Union proposed a plan to enhance the capabilities of the Internal Security Forces (ISF), offering training and border-security support so the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) can focus on disarmament tasks. The move is seen as a response to mounting pressure to guarantee sovereignty and security after the planned withdrawal of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) by end-2026.
New round of Israel-Lebanon civilian talks set, but normalization remains distant: On 3 December, Lebanon and Israel held their first direct civilian-level talks in decades under U.S. mediation, a step framed officially as part of ceasefire monitoring, not full diplomacy. But the country’s Prime Minister reiterated that diplomatic or economic normalisation remains far off until a comprehensive peace deal and full withdrawal of Israeli forces. Many Lebanese remain skeptical about the prospects.
Growing alarm over post-UNIFIL security vacuum and calls for a back-up force as UNIFIL’s mandate ending in 2026: Government officials and security observers are increasingly vocal about the need for a robust contingency plan. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam recently told a UN delegation that Lebanon would require a smaller, observer-style force to help the LAF maintain border stability, a proposal that reflects widespread concern about possible power vacuums in southern regions.
BDL to launch forensic audit tracing $20 billion: Lebanon’s central bank is set to appoint an international firm to investigate nearly twenty billion dollars in funds that have gone missing from its accounts since 2019, including money tied to import subsidies and transfers abroad. The move comes after a government mandate and is part of efforts to restore transparency and accountability in Lebanon’s banking sector.
In the Region
Syria marks one-year since Assad’s fall with celebrations and fragile optimism: On 8 December, Syrians across the country gathered in major squares, waved flags, set off fireworks and held public prayers to mark the first anniversary of the overthrow of Assad’s regime. The fall of Assad has reopened hopes for reconstruction, the return of refugees and reintegration into regional politics under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa.
UN Security Council makes unprecedented visit to Syria to evaluate post-war transition: A delegation from the UN Security Council arrived in Damascus on December 4 in what officials described as “historic”. The council had never before conducted an official visit to Syria. The team held meetings with government officials, humanitarian groups and residents in destroyed towns, seeking clarity on reconstruction, reconciliation and the return of displaced civilians. The visit reflects growing international interest in how Syria will navigate its post-Assad transition, and whether the political roadmap being developed can lead to long-term stability.
U.S.–Syrian forces conduct first coordinated anti-ISIS operation since Damascus’ return to the coalition: Following Syria’s official entry into the coalition, American and Syrian units carried out a joint operation in southern Syria, destroying more than a dozen ISIS weapons depots stocked with explosives, ammunition and rockets. The raid, the first publicly acknowledged collaboration between the two sides since Syria’s political transition, is being portrayed by Washington as evidence that Damascus is taking its new commitments seriously.
Sudan’s conflict intensifies as paramilitary RSF seizes key oilfield: On 8 December, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced that it had taken control of the strategic Heglig oilfield in South Kordofan, a crucial link for oil exports via the Greater Nile pipeline. The takeover risks disrupting regional oil supply especially affecting South Sudan and further destabilizes an already brutal civil war that has displaced millions and killed tens of thousands.
GCC-backed call for Sudan peace process: During the 46th session of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), member states reiterated support for a politically led resolution to the Sudanese conflict. The summit’s final statement emphasized backing for a Sudanese‑led reconciliation process and rejection of foreign intervention aimed at destabilizing the country.
Military expo in Cairo signals Egypt’s rising role in defense-industrial exports: At the 2025 Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), global arms manufacturers showcased different drone systems as Egypt is positioning itself as a regional defense‑production hub. The event reflects shifting regional defense dynamics and could signal growing demand for advanced military technology across the Middle East and Africa.
Early diplomatic signals between Syria and Israel emerge, but major obstacles remain: In an unexpected public statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested that a normalization agreement with Syria could be conceivable under strict security conditions, including a large demilitarized zone stretching to Mount Hermon. Syrian interim president al-Sharaa rejected the proposal outright, calling it an infringement on sovereignty.
What we’re reading
“Barrack’s Dangerous Nostalgia” In his commentary, Makram Rabah, NOW’S managing editor, argues that recent remarks by Tom Barrack, calling for Lebanon and Syria to be “brought together” because of shared civilization represent a deeply flawed and dangerous nostalgia. The piece points out that for many Lebanese, especially in cities like Zahle, the legacy of Syrian occupation, marked by violence, disappearances, and civil-war scars, is still raw. The article argues that conflating historical oppression with a vague romantic vision of unity erases the suffering of people on both sides.
“Tom Barrack’s Pattern: When an Envoy Repeats Himself, We Should Start Listening”: In this opinion piece, Ramzi Abou Ismail argues that Tom Barrack’s repeated public statements about Lebanon reveal a view that Lebanon is not regarded as a sovereign, stable political project, but rather a negotiable fragment of a broader “civilizational space”.
“The political weight of Pope Leo’s XIV visit to the Beirut Port blast site”: In her analysis piece, Rodayna Raydan, a journalist at NOW argues that Pope Leo XIV’S visit on December 2 to the side of the 2020 blast at Port of Beirut was a deeply political and symbolic act. His presence served as both a moral expression of solidarity for the families of the victims and the survivors, whilst also being an indirect call for accountability.
