Risk of war is mounting as Sayyed Ali al-Sistani allegedly presses for Shiite protection.
As tensions along the Lebanon–Israel border intensify, fears of a full-scale war have surged in recent days. Israeli officials speak of military readiness on several fronts, warning of approaching “days of combat” in Lebanon, while Beirut braces for potential retaliation and a widening cycle of strikes. Diplomatic actors in the region are scrambling to prevent a broader confrontation that many warn would be catastrophic for civilians already living through months of displacement and uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, sources reveal that Iraq’s highest Shiite religious authority, Sayyed Ali al-Sistani, has taken the rare step of intervening behind the scenes. According to those familiar with the message, Sistani recently sent a communication to Tehran expressing deep alarm over the precarious situation facing Lebanon’s Shiite community. He reportedly described the current moment as “extremely critical,” urging Iran to ensure that Lebanese Shiites are not left exposed to another destructive war that could trigger new waves of displacement and further weaken the security of southern villages and towns.
Sistani’s message coincided with a visit to Iran by Ali Hassan Khalil, political aide to Speaker Nabih Berri and a senior Amal Movement figure. During meetings with Iranian officials—including Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—Khalil emphasized the mounting pressure on Lebanon’s Shiite population, echoing Sistani’s warning that a clear political approach is needed to pull the community out of what he described as a “dead-end tunnel.” He stressed that many families remain unable to return to their homes amid ongoing destruction and insecurity.
The fears surrounding a broader conflict were compounded by a dramatic escalation in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where an Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah’s newly appointed chief of staff, Hayssam “Abu Ali” al-Tabtabai. The strike hit a residential building in Haret Hreik with eight missiles, causing extensive destruction and marking one of the most significant assassinations since the killing of Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in August 2024.
Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally authorized the strike and that it was coordinated with the United States, with Axios noting that Washington had been briefed on Israel’s intention to escalate in Lebanon several days earlier.
In Beirut, Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar said the group would respond “wisely and patiently,” insisting that the resistance alone would determine the timing and manner of any retaliation. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the attack, calling its timing—on Lebanon’s Independence Day—further proof that Israel disregards calls to halt its violations and refuses to engage with international efforts to restore stability.
What is Happening?
Israel’s defense establishment has delivered one of its starkest warnings yet about the situation on its northern border, with Defense Minister Yisrael Katz declaring that a confrontation with Lebanon could become unavoidable if Hezbollah does not relinquish its weapons. In an interview with Israeli outlets on Tuesday, Katz said the current reality along the frontier is “untenable,” stressing that Israel will not permit an armed Hezbollah to operate just across the border.
Katz argued that past international resolutions requiring Hezbollah’s disarmament remain unimplemented, and insisted that Israel would “act decisively” should the group refuse to comply.
His comments come after months of constant Israeli attacks and occupation of southern Land despite the 2024 ceasefire arrangement, which has done little to stop Israeli attacks. Israel claims that Hezbollah has rebuilt and expanded its military capabilities, while Hezbollah says Israel persists in violating Lebanese airspace and territory through ongoing strikes, drone surveillance, and cross-border operations.
The defense minister’s statements also echo concerns raised recently by Israeli officials in conversations with Washington, warning that Hezbollah is regrouping and reinforcing its operational networks.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam warned on Tuesday that Lebanon is effectively trapped in what he described as a “war of attrition” imposed by Israel, urging the country to prepare for the possibility of further escalation. Speaking after inspecting facilities at Beirut Port, Salam said the pace of Israeli attacks has increased in recent weeks, turning the confrontation into a largely unilateral campaign.
“This is a conflict whose intensity is steadily rising, and Israel continues to wage a prolonged, one-sided battle,” he said, according to remarks carried by the National News Agency. The prime minister added that the government is seeking greater backing from both Arab states and the international community to pressure Israel to halt its operations and begin withdrawing.
Clear Message
Although the message was not officially confirmed by a source close to Sistani, Journalist and Political commentator Ali al-Amin described Sistani’s recent message as credible and reflective of genuine concern for Lebanon’s Shiite community. He noted that while Sistani traditionally avoids confrontation with Iran, the message highlights real and pressing risks of a Lebanon–Israel war.
“This message is genuine. It mirrors the deep worry and fatigue inside the Shiite environment, which has now reached Najaf,” Al-Amin told NOW.
He explained that the message indirectly addresses Lebanese Shiites and the broader public, signaling a desire to avoid war:
“It establishes in people’s minds that Najaf’s view differs from Iran’s, reinforcing the sentiment of those who fear escalation and want to prevent a wider conflict,” Al Amin said.
Shiite scholar sheikh Mohammad Mohammad al-Hajj Ali al-Amili told NOW that the reported message attributed to Sistani carries significant weight.
“Even if it was not actually issued, what is being said reflects the general orientation of the Najaf religious authority, ” he said.
He explained that the substance of the message aligns with the traditional approach of the Najaf religious authority, which differs sharply from Shiite authorities elsewhere. “Anyone who follows Najaf’s method notices a clear difference in how it handles major issues,” he noted, pointing to the Syrian conflict as a key example, where Najaf opposed intervention and viewed it as “purely an internal matter.”
The core of Sistani’s guidance, he added, centers on calm engagement, coexistence, and avoiding provocation.
“The Najaf religious authority is often more concerned about the future of Shiites in Lebanon than about its own.”
Al-Amin emphasized that Hezbollah’s military decisions remain aligned with Iran, meaning Sistani’s intervention is unlikely to directly change Tehran’s strategy, but it provides social and moral support for Shiites in Lebanon who seek an exit from the growing crisis.
“Everyone knows Hezbollah’s choices are made in Tehran, not Beirut. Sistani’s message, directly or indirectly, is aimed at Lebanese Shiites and the Lebanese public,” he said.
Al-Amin suggested that Najaf’s clerical leadership likely holds this view, though it remains expressed with their usual caution. The Najaf authority typically avoids public interventions or taking highly active stances on political matters.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that Najaf is in contact with Iranian officials, urging them to avoid any escalation or to prevent Iran from contributing to a new crisis for Lebanese Shiites,” he said.
At the same time, he stressed that while Najaf is quietly applying pressure, it is unlikely to lead to an open confrontation with Iran’s supreme leadership: Whether Sistani’s message or the communications between Najaf and Tehran are fully verified, there is a growing sense of anxiety over the fate of Lebanon’s Shiite community. Political observers note that fears of escalation, displacement, and renewed violence are rising, as Shiites in Lebanon face mounting pressure amid Israeli threats, internal political tensions, and the risk of becoming entangled in another cycle of displacement, war, loss and death.
