As Lebanon hangs on a tightrope amid escalating Israeli strikes that killed seven people this past weekend, the country faces mounting pressure both externally and internally
Lebanon’s situation has grown increasingly precarious as Israel intensifies its strikes across the country, claiming seven lives over the past weekend. The escalation has reignited fears of a wider confrontation, with the ghost of war looming once again over a nation already burdened by years of crisis.
Diplomatic sources say recent U.S. communications to Beirut have carried a unified and urgent message—one that goes beyond discussions about Hezbollah’s weapons to push for establishing a clear mechanism for negotiations with Israel. According to these sources, the time frame set is narrow—weeks rather than months—and Lebanese officials have reportedly received clear signals about the limits of this deadline and the potential consequences of inaction.
In parallel, Lebanese authorities are weighing possible frameworks for dialogue. While Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has been promoting the idea of a negotiation “mechanism,” the presidency is reportedly studying various options, including reviving the Naqoura committee format as a potential way to avert an all-out war that Israel continues to threaten.
Amid growing regional and international pressure, Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad is expected to arrive in Beirut to meet with Lebanon’s top officials. Political observers view his visit as particularly significant, given Rashad’s senior security role and the likelihood that he will convey the latest international and Arab messages urging Lebanon to move swiftly toward de-escalation.
Tensions rose further as Israeli Security Minister Israel Katz toured the northern border with U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus, U.S. Central Command officials, and other diplomats. Katz vowed to continue strikes in Lebanon to protect residents in northern Israel, while Ortagus received intelligence briefings alleging that Hezbollah is rebuilding its military infrastructure in the south. Israeli commanders outlined their readiness for any escalation. The visit came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed that Israel’s policy toward all fronts—from Lebanon to Gaza—remains unchanged, amid mounting U.S. pressure over the next phase of the Trump administration’s Gaza plan.
In Lebanon
Electoral Law: Lebanon’s electoral law has long faced criticism for its inequalities, from the uneven size of districts—ranging from five seats in Saida-Jezzine to 13 in Chouf-Aley—to wide disparities in campaign spending limits. In 2018, candidates were allowed 150 million LBP in spending, plus the same amount for those running on a list and an additional 5,000 LBP per registered voter in larger districts. Researcher Mohamed Chamseddine notes that these limits are expected to remain unchanged for the 2026 elections unless parliament intervenes. However, the candidacy fee has risen sharply under the 2024 budget, increasing from 30 million LBP in 2022 to 200 million LBP for 2026.
Nawaf Salama & The Pope: Pope Leo XIV met on October 25 with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri, followed by a meeting with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, and Archbishop Paul Richard Gallagher, Secretary for Relations with States. The talks were described as cordial, highlighting the strong ties between Lebanon and the Vatican and confirming the Pope’s planned visit to Lebanon from November 30 to December 2, 2025. Discussions also touched on the Lebanese people’s hopes for reform and stability, and the shared aspiration for lasting peace across the Levant.
Raad’s Statement: MP Mohammad Raad, head of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, said Lebanon’s security depends on forcing Israel to halt its aggression rather than meeting its demands. He urged unity to confront Israeli ambitions and rejected any delay of parliamentary elections, calling it a constitutional duty. Raad warned against linking reconstruction to external pressures and dismissed claims that Hezbollah provokes attacks, saying Israel’s actions stem from greed and expansionist goals.
Tensions On The Border:Tensions erupted in the border town of Al-Mashrafah when an armed clash broke out between Lebanese national A. G. al-Hajj Hassan and members of a Syrian military unit stationed along the frontier. What began as a dispute reportedly over illegal border crossings quickly escalated into heavy gunfire, leaving al-Hajj Hassan injured. Lebanese Army and Military Intelligence forces were later dispatched to the area to secure the perimeter and restore order.
In The Region
New Agreement: Palestinian factions, including Hamas, announced after a meeting in Cairo that they had agreed to form an independent technocratic committee to manage post-war Gaza. The body will oversee daily affairs and essential services in coordination with Arab and international partners. The groups also pledged to unify their stance on key national issues and called for renewed efforts to develop a joint strategy and revitalize the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the sole representative of the Palestinian people.
Advancing Into Syria: On Sunday, Israeli forces reportedly moved into northern Quneitra following earlier limited operations near the occupied Golan Heights. Syrian reports said armored vehicles and tanks advanced toward Hadr, Trinjah, and eastern al-Samdaniyah with helicopter support, while troops conducted searches near the al-Salam Highway, detaining civilians and confiscating motorcycles.
Detaining Forces: Syrian authorities announced the arrest of former Major General Akram Salloum al-Abdullah, accused of overseeing executions and abuses at Sednaya prison during Bashar al-Assad’s rule. The interior ministry said Abdullah, who served as Commander of the Military Police from 2014 to 2015, was directly responsible for carrying out detainee executions.
New Summit: Egypt and the European Union will hold their first summit in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss security, trade, migration, and stability in Gaza. The meeting is expected to include announcements of increased European economic support for Egypt. The summit comes as the EU seeks new trade and security agreements amid global economic tensions and promotes its “Pact of the Mediterranean,” offering aid to regional countries in exchange for efforts to curb migration.
What We Are Reading
Islamist Pop Star Appears in Court: The Case of Fadel Shaker: Journalist Valeria Rando writes that Lebanese pop star Fadel Shaker appeared in Beirut court on October 21 after 12 years on the run. Accused of supporting deadly 2013 clashes in Sidon, Shaker was initially sentenced to death, later reduced to 22 years in absentia. Denying involvement, he surrendered under an arrangement allowing a new trial, making Tuesday’s appearance a preliminary hearing.
Lessons from Gaza — and What Comes Next for Lebanon: Now’s Managing Editor Makram Rabbah writes that Gaza’s fragile ceasefire shows perpetual war is unsustainable and serves as a warning for Lebanon. He urges the country to reclaim sovereignty, enforce the law, hold elections, and manage reconstruction transparently. True reform, Rabbah argues, starts at the ballot box, and Lebanon must act as a state—negotiating, securing peace, and controlling its own destiny.
From Fundraisers to Free Screenings: Lebanon Expands Its Pink October Initiatives: Journalist Rodayna Raydan writes that breast cancer awareness in Lebanon is growing, with the Ministry of Public Health offering free mammograms for women 40 and older until year-end. Dr. Ali Shamseddine notes that high detection rates reflect widespread screening and awareness programs, running annually since 2002. The Lebanese Breast Cancer Foundation leads Pink October campaigns, using social media and partnerships to educate the public and fund ongoing initiatives.
What’s Worse Than War: Lebanon’s Fatal Inertia: Political psychologist Ramzi Abou Ismail says U.S. envoy Tom Barrack’s recent warning to Lebanon highlights a deeper truth: the country’s greatest threat is not war, but paralysis. Lebanon has long survived without progress, postponing reforms and outsourcing security to militias, leaving the army weakened and sovereignty illusory.
