Syrians celebrated Assad's fall with chants, opposition flags, and joyous returns home after years of exile
In a stunning turn of events, the Assad regime was overthrown after years of brutal civil war. The final stronghold of rebel forces lay in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, located along Syria’s border with Turkey. This region, home to more than four million people, including many displaced individuals, was primarily controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist militant group. However, it also housed several allied rebel and jihadist factions, as well as areas controlled by Turkish-backed rebels, supported by Turkish troops.
On 27 November, HTS and its allies launched a surprise offensive. Within just three days, they had seized most of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, facing minimal resistance as the Syrian government quickly withdrew its troops and security forces. Capitalizing on the retreat, Turkish-backed rebel groups launched their own offensive against Kurdish-led militias in the north, specifically targeting areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which were backed by the United States.
In response, Assad vowed to crush the rebels, mobilizing his allies for support. Russian warplanes intensified bombing raids on rebel-held areas, while Iran-backed militias reinforced Assad’s military near Hama, a strategic city on the road to Damascus. Despite these efforts, Hama fell to the rebels after intense battles, forcing a government withdrawal. The rebels then turned their attention to Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, which they captured with surprising ease after just one day of fighting. At the same time, other rebel factions reached the suburbs of Damascus, signaling the approaching collapse of Assad’s hold on power.
By early Sunday, rebels led by HTS announced they had entered Damascus and freed detainees from the infamous Saydnaya military prison. Less than two hours later, they declared the fall of the Assad regime, with reports suggesting that the president had fled the capital, reportedly boarding a plane to an undisclosed location.
The Islamist militant group at the forefront of the offensive, initially known as al-Nusra Front, had been formed in 2012. The group, which later pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, was one of the most formidable and feared in the conflict. Its jihadist ideology often put it at odds with the largely secular Free Syrian Army, the main rebel coalition. In 2016, al-Nusra severed ties with al-Qaeda and rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a move that consolidated various factions. Despite this rebranding, HTS remained designated as a terrorist organization by the UN, US, UK, and others, with the US offering a $10 million reward for information leading to the capture of its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani.
Over time, HTS consolidated power in Idlib and Aleppo, defeating rival groups, including ISIS, and establishing the Syrian Salvation Government, which imposed its version of Islamic law on the region. On 27 November, HTS and its allies framed their offensive as a defensive measure against increasing attacks on civilians by the Syrian government and its Iran-backed militias.
By this point, the Syrian government, weakened by years of war, sanctions, and internal corruption, found itself increasingly vulnerable. With key allies Russia and Iran distracted by other conflicts—Russia bogged down in Ukraine and Iran’s Hezbollah forces reeling from Israeli strikes in Lebanon—the regime’s military capabilities were severely limited, leaving Assad exposed to a final, overwhelming assault.
In Syria
Fleeing to Russia: Following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, Moscow granted asylum to him and his family, as confirmed by Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, on his Telegram account. Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, Assad’s former prime minister, called for the establishment of free elections and disclosed that he had been in discussions with HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani about the transition process. Al-Jawlani, who had led a group once aligned with al-Qaeda but now presents a more moderate image, stated that there was no turning back from their victory. The fall of Assad’s regime has major regional consequences, including diminishing Iran’s ability to supply arms to its allies, endangering Russia’s naval base in the Mediterranean, and potentially allowing millions of refugees, scattered across Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan for more than a decade, to finally return to their homeland.
Prisoners freed: Among the facilities freed by rebels was Saydnaya, one of the most infamous prisons in Syria. Authorities in Damascus province reported that efforts to release prisoners were ongoing, with some detainees described as being “almost suffocating” due to the lack of ventilation. In a public appeal, the Damascus Countryside Governorate urged former military personnel and prison workers from Assad’s regime to provide the necessary codes to unlock underground doors. Despite these efforts, the doors remained sealed, preventing the release of over 100,000 prisoners visible on surveillance monitors. Videos circulating online showed the rebels attempting to access lower prison levels to free the detainees.
The final return: As Assad’s regime crumbled, Syrian refugees in Lebanon flocked to the Masnaa border crossing on Sunday, hoping to return home. Videos shared widely on social media and Arabic-language news outlets, including Al Jazeera, captured scenes of hundreds of Syrians gathering at the border, which the Lebanese army had partially opened to allow their passage. Many refugees celebrated by chanting, flashing victory signs, and waving the opposition flag, expressing their excitement at the prospect of returning to Syria now that Assad was no longer in power. For some, it was the first time in over a decade they could make the journey home. In other videos, refugees were seen walking back to Syria on foot. In Lebanon, celebrations broke out as both Syrians and Lebanese took to the streets, in several areas, jubilant displays of relief.
In The Region
Hochstein speaks: US envoy Amos Hochstein warned that the opposition’s recent gains in Syria would significantly impact Lebanon. Speaking at the Doha Forum, he noted that Iran would struggle to supply weapons to Hezbollah due to the weakening of the Syrian government. He stated that Iran’s reduced presence in Syria would hinder its ability to support its Lebanese allies, making Hezbollah more vulnerable.
Israel and the Golan: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the IDF had temporarily seized control of the Golan Heights buffer zone, citing the collapse of the 1974 disengagement agreement after the rebel takeover of Syria. He emphasized that Israel would not allow hostile forces near its border and would defend itself, though he expressed a desire for peaceful relations with any new forces in Syria.
Iraq fortifies: Over 1,000 Syrian soldiers fled to Iraq following the fall of Assad’s regime. Iraqi officials confirmed their arrival through the Al-Qaim border crossing, where they were provided care. Despite the influx, Iraqi officials downplayed the security risk, noting strong border defenses and the presence of Iraqi Border Forces and military units.
What We Are Reading
Two Fronts, One Reality: Political psychologist Ramzi Abu Ismail emphasizes that in the Levant, borders often symbolize less than they separate, with conflicts in one nation quickly spilling over into neighboring states. This week, two significant developments in the region underscore this interconnectedness: the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and the growing conflict in northern Syria, where rebels have launched a coordinated offensive.
Define victory: Journalist Khalil Gebara explains that Arab-Israeli wars have always transcended conventional definitions of victory. In this historical struggle, success has often been measured not by territorial gains but by the persistence of political regimes and causes, making survival and resilience central to the narrative. This outlook has ensured that defeat remains unacceptable for any party involved.
Returning to destroyed homes: Journalist Rodayna Raydan highlights the bleak aftermath of Lebanon’s ceasefire with Israel. While Hezbollah claims “victory,” villages lie in ruins, and the World Bank estimates $8.5 billion in losses. Israeli restrictions have displaced thousands and enforced curfews south of the Litani River, hindering recovery efforts.
A hard funding scenario: Journalist Maan Barazy reports that Lebanon faces an uphill battle after the 66-day war, with damages estimated at $13 billion – surpassing those of 2006. Destruction in the South, Bekaa, and Beirut adds to the crisis. Securing reconstruction funds will require international cooperation, possibly through a global conference and a dedicated oversight committee. Success hinges on Lebanon’s political stability and commitment to implementing international agreements.
