As Israel awaits a response from Iran, Lebanon is grappling with daily sonic booms that echo throughout the country. Meanwhile, Gaza continues to endure daily hardships, though new hopes for ceasefire talks are emerging
It has been thirteen days since Israel carried out two strikes: one in Tehran, targeting and killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and another in Beirut’s southern suburb, eliminating Hezbollah’s military chief, Fuad Shukr. Despite these attacks, neither Iran nor Hezbollah has retaliated, though both have sworn vengeance. The global community watches with apprehension, fearing the potential for these events to escalate into a wider conflict.
This delay in response is reminiscent of the 12-day wait after a supposed Israeli strike in Damascus, Syria, that resulted in the death of a senior Iranian military officer. Hezbollah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah, suggested that the current wait is a form of psychological warfare, keeping Israel on edge. It’s plausible that Tehran is carefully calculating its response, considering the high stakes and the likelihood of an Israeli counterattack.
Meanwhile, since the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7 of last year, Israeli jets have been increasingly creating sonic booms over Lebanon, particularly during the Gaza war. These low-altitude flights seem intended to intimidate the Lebanese population. Notably, some of these sonic booms occurred just days after the August 4, 2020, anniversary of the Beirut port explosion, which killed over 200 people and injured thousands. The explosion, triggered by a fire in a warehouse filled with highly combustible ammonium nitrate, devastated large parts of the city.
The presence of fighter jets and the sound of explosions can severely affect populations already traumatized by past wars and blasts.
The psychological impact of these sonic booms on the Lebanese population cannot be understated. The frequent and sudden blasts, coupled with the ominous roar of low-flying jets, are a stark reminder of past conflicts and tragedies, such as the 2020 Beirut port explosion. This form of psychological warfare is designed to instill fear and anxiety, keeping the population in a constant state of alertness and stress. For many, the booms reignite memories of previous wars, leading to a sense of helplessness and ongoing trauma. The intended effect is not just to intimidate, but to destabilize the mental and emotional well-being of the Lebanese people, creating an environment of perpetual tension and fear.
In Lebanon
8/12/2024: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that they intercepted around 30 projectiles early Monday, which were detected crossing from Lebanon into northern Israel. According to the IDF, no injuries were recorded as some of the projectiles landed in open areas. In retaliation, the IDF launched strikes on the sources of the fire.
Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the latest barrage, stating that it was in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza and in retaliation for Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. This follows a report by Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency (NNA) that an Israeli strike on the town of Ma’aroub in southern Lebanon injured 12 people, including six children.
Approximately 30 rockets were fired from Lebanon, with the IDF noting that some landed in open areas, resulting in no reported injuries. Earlier on Sunday, the IDF stated that its public guidelines remained unchanged in anticipation of a possible military response from Iranian forces following the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.
8/9/2024: An Israeli airstrike on Friday evening hit a vehicle deep inside Lebanon, killing a high-ranking member of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, according to a Hamas source and two other security officials cited by Reuters.
The airstrike took place on the southern outskirts of Sidon, a port city in Lebanon located approximately 60 kilometers (almost 40 miles) from the Israeli border. The attack resulted in the death of Samer al-Hajj, a Hamas security official who was based in the nearby Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp. His bodyguard was also critically injured in the strike, the sources confirmed.
8/9/2024: The Lebanese government has sent a comprehensive plan to its diplomatic missions globally, outlining efforts to establish long-term stability in southern Lebanon. This plan includes a new recruitment initiative aimed at increasing the number of Lebanese army troops stationed along the border, in light of rising tensions and the ongoing conflicts involving Israel, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
This proposal is the first time the Lebanese government has officially documented its position and suggested de-escalation strategies since the conflict started on October 8. According to sources from Al-Araby TV, Hezbollah did not express opposition to the plan, though their official stance remains that a ceasefire in southern Lebanon is only possible if Israel halts its military actions in Gaza.
8/8/2024: MP Alain Aoun and Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab were recently expelled from the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), sparking further unrest within the party. In the wake of these expulsions, MP Simon Abi Ramia of the Strong Lebanon bloc announced on Wednesday his resignation from the FPM’s organizational structure. Abi Ramia, who has represented the Jbeil district in Parliament and has been a loyal supporter of FPM founder General Michel Aoun since September 18, 1988, expressed deep disappointment with the direction the party has taken.
8/8/2024: MP Ghada Ayoub recently sparked controversy with her remarks, which have been widely criticized for their sectarian undertones. In a video that quickly spread across social media, Ayoub stated that she belongs to a community that has been “facing challenges for 1,400 years.” These comments drew backlash, particularly from Muslim leaders.
12/8/2024: The Lebanese actor Samir Chammas passed away, and his death was mourned with deep sadness by the President of the Actors’ Syndicate, as well as actors Carmen Lebbos, Bassem Moughnieh, and others.
In The Region
Tensions rise: Israel has been intensifying its home front defenses in anticipation of a potential attack from Iran and its allied forces. Blood supplies have been stocked in a fortified underground facility by Israel’s ambulance service, factories have relocated hazardous materials, and local authorities are inspecting bomb shelters and ensuring water supplies are secure. These preparations, which began during the Gaza war last October following a devastating cross-border assault by Hamas gunmen on Israeli communities, have now taken on new urgency.
Over the past 10 days, the relatively contained conflict with the Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has threatened to escalate into a full-scale regional war. Israel now faces the looming prospect of a multifront conflict, contending with militant groups including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen – all supported and funded by its longstanding adversary, Iran.
An attack is anticipated in the coming days, following vows from Iran and Hezbollah to avenge the recent assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Enduring more horrors: Overnight, Israel extended evacuation orders in Khan Younis, located in the southern Gaza Strip, compelling tens of thousands of Palestinian residents and displaced families to evacuate under cover of darkness amid the sounds of tank shelling.
The Israeli military stated that their operations were targeting Hamas militants – who previously governed Gaza – believed to be using these areas to launch attacks and fire rockets. On Saturday, an Israeli airstrike hit a school in Gaza City where displaced Palestinians were taking refuge, resulting in at least 90 deaths, according to the civil defense service.
Ceasefire talks again: On Sunday, the Palestinian resistance group Hamas called for cease-fire mediators in Gaza to present a plan based on a proposal endorsed by US President Joe Biden, which Hamas had agreed to on July 2. The group’s statement demanded that mediators enforce the proposal and ensure Israeli compliance, rather than continuing with additional negotiations or new proposals that might delay action and allow further Israeli aggression.
Egyptian, Qatari, and US mediators had urged both Israel and Hamas on Thursday to finalize a cease-fire and hostage release agreement without further delay. According to a joint statement from Qatar’s Amiri Diwan, “There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay.” The mediators expressed their readiness to offer a final bridging proposal to resolve remaining implementation issues in a way that satisfies all parties involved.
Sudden resignation: Mohammad Javad Zarif resigned as Iran President’s deputy strategic affairs, expressing dissatisfaction with Masoud Pezeshkian’s proposed cabinet. In an Instagram post, Zarif revealed that only three of the 19 Ministers were the top choices, with ten not even on the selection committee’s list.
Ukraine and Russia: Local authorities in Russia’s Belgorod region ordered residents to evacuate on Monday due to intensified Ukrainian inclusions into Moscow’s territory. Belgorod’s Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov cited “enemy activity” in the Krasnoyarsk district as the cause.
What We Are Reading
Healthcare sector amid growing tensions: Journalist Dana Hourany writes about Lebanon’s urgent efforts to bolster its healthcare system in the face of a potential full-scale conflict with Israel. With the memory of the July 2006 war still vivid, Lebanon is actively stockpiling emergency medical supplies and preparing hospitals for a surge in war-related injuries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has already delivered 32 tonnes of emergency supplies, with more on the way.
A weak community in a dysfunctional system: Journalist Khalil Gebara examines the ongoing scrutiny of Lebanon’s Sunni community during key political and security moments. This “Sunni question” parallels the historical “Eastern question” regarding the Ottoman Empire. Historical events, including Lebanon’s path to independence and the influence of Arab nationalism and the PLO, have raised doubts about the Sunni community’s loyalty. Historian Kamal Salibi noted in 1995 that Lebanese Sunnis face a challenge in fully embracing their Lebanese identity over their traditional broader Sunni affiliation.
Survivor, Beirut edition: Journalist Maan Barazy reports that the looming threat of conflict between Iran and Israel has caused widespread panic in Lebanon, with citizens rushing to stockpile essentials. This surge in anxiety has allowed merchants and traders to exploit the situation, profiting from a population already reeling from economic difficulties. As of July 9, approximately 98,002 people (51% of whom are female) have been displaced from southern Lebanon due to ongoing hostilities. The Ministry of Health has reported 1,904 casualties, including 466 deaths, with at least 100 confirmed civilian fatalities.
No, we are not going to war: Political psychologist Ramzi Abu Ismail analyzes Hassan Nasrallah’s recent over-hour speech, where the Hezbollah Secretary-General addressed current geopolitical tensions. Nasrallah asserted that Hezbollah does not use its military victories for internal political gain. However, Ismail challenges this claim, pointing to historical examples where Hezbollah’s actions have had significant political consequences. In 2008, Hezbollah’s forceful takeover of West Beirut shifted Lebanon’s political dynamics. Similarly, in 2011, Hezbollah’s pressure tactics contributed to the collapse of the Lebanese government. These events demonstrate a pattern of utilizing military achievements to bolster political influence and intimidate rivals, contradicting Nasrallah’s assertion of avoiding internal political interference.
Lebanon +
In a recent episode of the Beirut Banyan podcast, host Ronnie Chatah discussed the anniversary of the Beirut blast and the ongoing situation in southern Lebanon and its suburbs. He highlighted Lebanon’s lack of sovereignty and the resulting security nightmare, emphasizing the country’s deteriorating state and the absence of effective governance.
