Lebanon faces a tense standoff between U.S.-backed demands for state control of weapons and Hezbollah’s insistence on retaining arms as a shield against Israel, amid domestic political strains, regional pressures, and security challenges
Lebanon is at a tipping point, pulled in two opposing directions: pressure from the United States and its allies to bring all weapons under state control, and Hezbollah’s insistence that its arms remain essential until Israel ends its strikes and withdraws from occupied southern territory.
The divide sharpened on Friday when Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem warned that the country would “have no life” if the government moved to confront or dismantle the Iran-backed group. “This is our nation together. We live in dignity together and build its sovereignty together—or Lebanon will have no life if you stand on the other side and try to confront us,” he said in a televised address.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam swiftly condemned the comments as an implicit threat of civil war, stressing that “no party in Lebanon is authorized to bear arms outside the framework of the state.” He said Qassem’s rhetoric was “unacceptable,” but noted that space remains for dialogue and compromise “before the situation escalates to a confrontation no one wants.”
Israel has already inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah over the past two years, killing thousands of its fighters, including former leader Hassan Nasrallah, and dismantling large parts of its arsenal. Still, the group argues that its weapons are a shield against Israeli attacks, not a bargaining chip to be given up.
The tensions are unfolding as foreign envoys arrive in Beirut. US envoys Morgan Ortagus and Tom Barrack are both in Lebanon today. Last week, senior Iranian official Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, met with Lebanese leaders in an effort to ease tensions over the weapons dispute.
Larijani told officials that Iran “does not interfere in Lebanese decision-making” and said that “any decision taken by the Lebanese government in consultation with the resistance is respected by us.” He countered that it was Washington, not Tehran, imposing external plans on Lebanon: “Iran brought no plan to Lebanon—the United States did. Those intervening in Lebanese affairs are the ones dictating plans and deadlines.”
In Lebanon
UNIFIL time: European countries are resisting U.S. and Israeli efforts to end UNIFIL’s mission in southern Lebanon, arguing the nearly 10,000-strong peacekeeping force is vital for stability ahead of a crucial UN Security Council vote this month. Washington and Tel Aviv want the mandate, in place since 1978, to expire within a year, saying the force has failed to curb Hezbollah’s presence, while France, Italy, and Lebanon warn an abrupt withdrawal would risk renewed conflict. A French draft resolution seeks to renew the mandate without a fixed end date, but U.S. officials insist any extension must include a roadmap for winding down the mission.
Aoun and Iran: President Joseph Aoun said Iran is a “friendly state” only within the framework of mutual respect and Lebanon’s sovereignty, stressing it should be a partner to all Lebanese, not just one faction. In an interview, he said Lebanon had added its own input to the U.S. proposal brought by envoy Tom Barrack, turning it into a “Lebanese paper” that requires the approval of Lebanon, Syria, and Israel. Aoun underscored a step-by-step approach, noting that Beirut must either accept the proposal to show good faith internationally or reject it and risk harsher Israeli attacks and deeper isolation.
Sneaky Operations: Local media reported that Lebanese security forces foiled an attempt by fewer than ten Syrians to cross the eastern mountain range near Kafr Zabad and Qusayya. The Lebanese Army intercepted them as they crossed the dirt barriers, forcing them to retreat, amid a heavy military deployment along the border and tighter controls to secure it fully.
UNIFIL Findings: Last week, UN peacekeepers in Lebanon uncovered weapons and munitions in multiple incidents across Sectors East and West, including rocket launchers, shells, mortar rounds, bomb fuses, and a tunnel containing explosives, UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said in New York. The finds were handed over to the Lebanese Army, while UNIFIL also reported Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire across the Blue Line. The mission has stepped up training for Lebanese forces in clearing unexploded ordnance, which Dujarric described as “crucial” as the army works daily to secure contaminated areas.
In The Region
Al Sharaa Plan: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said unifying the country must come “without blood,” rejecting partition and accusing Israel of stirring unrest in the south. His comments followed protests in Suwaida after last month’s deadly clashes, where Druze groups accused government forces of abuses. Sharaa admitted violations by security forces and pledged accountability, while talks with Kurdish authorities on integrating their administration remain stalled.
Suwaida Mess: In Suwaida, protesters staged the first large demonstration explicitly calling for independence, waving Druze and Israeli flags and chanting “Suwayda wants independence.” Banners rejected federalism and denounced the government as allied with “terrorism,” while some participants praised Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri and voiced gratitude toward Israel. A simultaneous protest in Shahba demanded a humanitarian crossing, an international probe, and the release of detainees. That same day, a Red Crescent convoy delivered 450 tons of flour with WFP support, while sporadic gunfire between security forces and local factions unsettled parts of the province.
Gaza Death Toll: The Gaza Health Ministry says at least 61,944 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023, with 155,886 injured. Recent attacks killed 47 people, while 14 more died trying to reach aid. Starvation has claimed seven lives in the past day, raising famine-linked deaths to 258. Israeli border closures and renewed strikes since March have worsened conditions, and Israel faces international legal action for alleged war crimes and genocide.
Israel Protests: Hundreds of thousands protested across Israel, calling for an end to the Gaza war and a deal to free hostages held by Hamas. The largest rally took place at Tel Aviv’s “Hostages Square,” with organizers warning that plans to seize Gaza City could endanger about 20 hostages. A one-day national strike closed roads, offices, and universities, and nearly 40 people were arrested. Prime Minister Netanyahu condemned the protests, saying they could harden Hamas’s stance and delay hostage releases.
What We Are Reading
Can the Lebanese army succeed in disarming Hezbollah?: Journalist Rodayna Raydan reports that Lebanon is moving to assert full sovereignty by disarming Hezbollah and other militias. The army will lead a staged plan through the end of the year, linking Hezbollah’s disarmament to Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction efforts. Analysts warn the process could be difficult due to Hezbollah’s refusal to cooperate and potential sectarian splits in the army.
Mohammad Raad and the “Paving the Sea” Project: NOW’s editor-in-chief Makram Rabbah says Hezbollah’s insistence on keeping its weapons serves an Iranian-backed agenda, not Lebanon. He criticizes the party for causing instability, endangering civilians, and blocking reforms, calling its stance a “Paving the Sea” project—an impossible and destructive cause that cannot sustain long-term control over the state.
Hezbollah’s Strategy of Stalemate and Why It Cannot Survive: Political psychologist Ramzi Abu Ismail writes that Hezbollah’s long-standing strategy—relying on military deterrence, political power, and community support—is under strain. Recent losses in its arsenal and Lebanese Army raids have weakened its leverage. By framing disarmament as a threat to Lebanon, the group seeks to rally its base, but Lebanon’s fragmented politics limit its influence. If Hezbollah cannot adapt, its current posture risks eroding its relevance and credibility.
