HomePoliticsBriefingWarning for Escalation

Warning for Escalation


A woman stops to look at the wreckage of a vehicle, the day after an Israeli air strike that killed its occupants, in the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Roummane, in the Nabatiyeh district on November 2, 2025. Israel warned on November 2, 2025, that its military would step up its attacks against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, a day after the Lebanese health ministry reported four people killed in an Israeli air strike in the Nabatiyeh district. Despite a November 2024 ceasefire with the Lebanese militant group, Israel maintains troops in five areas in southern Lebanon and has kept up regular strikes.

Israeli War Minister again threatens Beirut, takes aim at Lebanese President, Ongoing strikes and cease-fire violations in south Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, Israeli soldiers execute municipal employee Ibrahim Salameh after storming Blida municipality building, Israel informed Washington that it plans to expand its attacks on the country, Egypt’s intelligence chief makes surprise visit to Lebanon, Netanyahu and Katz meet security officials to discuss border situation, US Envoy Tom Barrack says Lebanon has reached its last chance to negotiate with Israel, Lebanon’s 2026 elections at risk as Parliament and Cabinet clash over electoral law, Lebanon’s Interior Minister Hajjar and Syrian Foreign Minister Shaibani discuss security cooperation in Bahrain, Drug dealer in the Rashidieh Palestinian refugee camp surrendered a large quantity of narcotics, Suzanne al-Hajj’s husband sues Lebanese independent media outlet, Israel kills 104 Palestinians across Gaza in 12 hours before announcing return to ceasefire, More Gaza areas to be searched for hostage remains, Trump’s Gaza reconstruction plan envisions rebuilding only within areas under Israeli control in the strip, UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese says over 60 states complicit in Israel’s genocide in Gaza, 15,000 olive trees destroyed by Israel in the West Bank since October 2024, Tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews protest military draft in Jerusalem, US cargo plane delivers heavy weapons to northeast Syria base, SDF submits list of commanders for integration into Syrian army, US backs repeal of Caesar Act sanctions on Syria, UK-made weapons supplied via UAE found on Sudanese battlefields, UN cites horrifying escalation in Sudan as El-Fasher falls to Rapid Support Forces, Iraq and Turkiye finalize first agreement to regulate shared water resources

This is not a war, nor is it a hunt for terrorists. And it is not a video game, even if from the perspective of an Israeli soldier it might sometimes seem like one. 350 deaths in terms of peace or so-called truce – 34 of them in the last month alone, meaning more than one martyr per day – are nothing more than proof of the cold execution of men and women whom the enemy has decided – like a judge sentencing his defendants to death – that they, these men and women, must die. That their children must become orphans. Even if they are Hezbollah supporters, or Hezbollah representatives, or even Hezbollah soldiers – but in civilian clothes, unarmed, rebuilding their destroyed homes or taking their children to school – these men, whom Tel Aviv and Washington continue to consider a dangerous threat, would in theory be protected by international law, which considers the execution of non-combatant soldiers a war crime.

But 350 Lebanese are a pretext – as are the bodies of the hostages who died in Gaza, whose return, dead, clearly counts for more than the ongoing extermination of Palestinians, whom Israel kills by the hundreds, even in terms of peace or so-called truce. A pretext to restart the war – which, beyond diplomatic formalities, has never really ended, either in Gaza or in southern Lebanon – as a mere means of annihilation and colonization.

Or, in other words, to quote the mayor of Blida, Hassane Hijazi, during the sit-in held the day after the Israeli raid on the border village and the cold-blooded execution of Ibrahim Salameh, a municipal employee, who was murdered in the middle of the night while he was sleeping in the town hall: “Where are UNIFIL, the UN, and the ceasefire supervision committee in the face of this blatant aggression and violation of Resolution 1701?” And he added: “The only crime of Salameh and the martyrs in the south is that they are sons of this land. If they had fallen elsewhere, the whole world would have risen in protest.”

And this confirms that Israel has succeeded in its intent: that its devious propaganda games – masked by the return of displaced residents from northern Galilee, while displaced and maimed people from southern Lebanon are expressly and violently forbidden from returning; or by that of the hostages’ corpses who, for two years of genocide, were not a priority for Netanyahu’s government, while Hamas had been ready for months to exchange them: and alive – are sufficient to justify, once again, the massacre. As has always been the case with the notorious ‘security’, the ‘fight against terrorism’, the defense of a fake ‘democracy’: and which today is, in sadly paradoxical, if not grotesque terms, the ‘right of return’: and exclusively theirs. Alive or dead. Israel has managed to steal even this from Palestinian history.

And threatening, ever more clearly, to be ready to attack Beirut again if the disarmament of Hezbollah is not completed, adding that they will forbid the reconstruction of the Lebanese village line near the northern border. As Netanyahu stated during Sunday’s Cabinet session – mentioning, among the others, the threat still presented by Yemen’s Houthis -, “we will not allow the Lebanon front to once again be a source of threat to Israel, and we will do what is necessary to prevent that.”

A threat, in fact, which for the first time was addressed directly to the President of the Lebanese Republic, Joseph Aoun. “Hezbollah is playing with fire and the President of Lebanon is dragging his feet,” Israeli War Minister Israel Katz said in a social media post. “The Lebanese government’s commitment to disarm Hezbollah and remove it from southern Lebanon must be carried out. The strictest enforcement will continue and will even deepen – we will not allow a threat to the residents of the north,” the Minister added, just hours after an Israeli strike on south Lebanon’s Kfar Remman killed four people and injured several others. 

Earlier, in an interview with Israel’s Channel 14, Katz explained that the Americans consider the Lebanese government “responsible for disarming Hezbollah,” adding that “we are giving them a chance to act, but we are not ceasing our attacks,” and that evading this responsibility “will not protect Lebanon from any Israeli response.” 

Quite odd, considering that just a few hours later, the United States themselves, through its Special Envoy and Ambassador Tom Barrack, described Lebanon as a “failed state,” dubbing its leaders “dinosaurs” and saying that it probably won’t be able to comply with the central US demand that it will disarm Hezbollah. “You’ve had abject chaos and war for 40 years. You’ve had four failed governments. And you’ve had six wars in the time that anybody can remember. So I’m not sure what the state is,” Barrack said near the beginning of a question-and-answer session at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue, a diplomatic and security conference in Bahrain – while proceeding to enumerate problems in Lebanon’s banking sector and basic infrastructure. 

“So what’s the state?” he said near the beginning of the session. “The state is Hezbollah. You go south, Hezbollah gives you water. It gives you an education, gives you a stipend, and has 40,000 soldiers. The LAF, Lebanese Armed Forces, has 60,000 soldiers. The only problem is that Hezbollah soldiers make $2,200 a month. The LAF soldiers make $275 a month.” “The idea of disarming Hezbollah – in our opinion, it’s not reasonable to tell Lebanon, ‘Forcibly disarm one of your political parties’,” he went on saying. “Everybody’s scared to death to go into a civil war. The idea is, what can you do to have Hezbollah not utilize those rockets and missiles?”.

The best path forward for Lebanon, Barrack argued repeatedly, was to begin a dialogue with Israel, with the hope of signing a diplomatic agreement inspired by the Abraham Accords; that the time was ripe for expanding regional normalization with Israel due to a variety of factors, among them the ceasefire in Gaza and the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad last year; and that Lebanon would risk 10,000 more lives not to have a conversation with Israel: the only entity that has the capabilities to end this, while “America cannot.”

Nevertheless, every time Lebanon takes a step forward, Israel and its powerful ally up their demands, leaving little room for compromise. And the role of the American mediator – which perhaps it would be better to call what it really is: Israel’s biggest arms supplier, and therefore the financial backer of every massacre carried out on Lebanese territory – is nothing more than imposing ultimatums, reminding that the time to carry out their dictates is running out, threatening to isolate Lebanon, leaving it to its fate, and to remain so for a long time, “with no one to care about it, neither in America nor in the region,” with no one able to pressure Israel “to prevent it from doing whatever it deems appropriate to undertake disarmament by force.” To bind the crucial issue of reconstruction, which depends on Gulf money and therefore requires American approval, to their terms and timelines: as confirmed by the postponement of Saudi envoy Yazid bin Farhan’s upcoming trip to Beirut, in clear sign of diplomatic discontentment with Lebanon, which casts plausible doubt over Saudi’s participation in the conferences planned together with France in support of the Lebanese Army and south Lebanon reconstruction efforts. 

And some still dare to call ‘diplomacy’ this clear strategy of threats, the punitive and surveillant approach of the stick and the carrot – always hiding behind the charade of the interests of the Lebanese state. But if this state is, as they say – and many might agree on -, ‘failed’ and governed by ‘dinosaurs’, perhaps the time has come when even this excuse no longer seems valid: and instead, even if late and without surprises, the true face of America’s interests in Lebanon is revealed.

 

In Lebanon

The Egyptian mediation: “We do not carry messages of threat or warning to Lebanon, but a message of caution about what may happen in the future,” said Egypt’s Intelligence Chief, Major General Hassan Rashad, during a surprise visit to Lebanon on Tuesday. Rashad met with Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun to discuss the ceasefire with Israel and other issues in the region. The visit coincided with the US Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus’ visit to the country amid tightened security measures, and came just days after Rashad met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem.

According to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, Rashad and Aoun discussed security and military issues, coordination between the countries, the Gaza ceasefire, and the inclusion of Lebanon in the Sharm el-Sheikh summit. The pair also discussed the regional situation as well as Israeli attacks on south Lebanon.

Rashad expressed Egypt’s “readiness to help stabilize the south and end the volatile security situation there,” falling within the framework of the active regional role that Cairo is currently undertaking to establish stability in coordination with the US and a number of regional partners.

Rashad also met with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to discuss security and political matters related to the southern border, the role of the Lebanese army in implementing Resolution 1701, and the possibility of resuming Arab coordination to support Lebanese institutions in the face of increased pressures.

Observers in Cairo believe Rashad is sending direct and indirect messages from Israel to Lebanon, conveying that they would like to avoid any new military escalations at the border. However, local reports indicate that Rashad is looking at the possibility of Egyptian mediation between Lebanon and Israel.

 

Warning for escalation: As reported by Al-Akhbar newspaper, US envoy for Syria and Ambassador to Turkiye Tom Barrack has threatened, once again, that Lebanon has reached its last chance to negotiate with Israel. “This will be my last visit to Lebanon,” he said ahead of his arrival in Beirut on Wednesday. 

“I will inform the President, the Prime Minister, and the Speaker of Parliament that they have one last chance: either they learn their lesson and decide to enter into direct negotiations with Israel under US auspices, to establish a timetable and mechanism for disarming Hezbollah, or Lebanon will be left to its fate, and will remain so for a long time, with no one to care about it, neither in America nor in the region, and no one will be able to pressure Israel to prevent it from doing whatever it deems appropriate to undertake disarmament by force.”

Concern is mounting in Lebanon regarding a possible reignition of wide-scale Israeli bombardment on the country should it not achieve a swift monopoly on arms, focused mostly on disarming Hezbollah. Barrack made similar comments in a post on X on October 20, warning that if Beirut hesitates in its process to disarm the party, “Israel may act unilaterally – and the consequences would be grave.”

Later on Thursday, October 30, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar wrote a message on his X account claiming that Hezbollah is rearming and saying that Israel can no longer ignore Hezbollah’s alleged actions. The post is accompanied by a photo of him shaking hands with the United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert. “Hezbollah, with Iran’s support, continues to intensify its efforts to rebuild and rearm,” Saar wrote. “This is dangerous for Israel’s security just as it is for Lebanon’s future. Israel cannot bury its head in the sand in the face of this trend. I reiterated our will to expand the circle of normalization and peace in the Middle East.”

On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz met with senior Israeli security officials to discuss the situation on the Lebanese border.

 

In Blida: On the night of Wednesday, October 29, Israeli soldiers executed Ibrahim Salameh, an employee of the Blida municipality, who had been spending the night inside the municipal building. Around 1:30 AM, Israeli forces, supported by military vehicles, advanced into the town and raided the building, shooting Salameh before continuing their incursion until 4 AM.

On Thursday morning, after the Lebanese army transferred Salameh’s body to the hospital in Bint Jbeil, residents blocked the main road in Blida in protest and set tires on fire. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam issued a statement offering condolences to Salameh’s family, describing the incident as “a blatant assault on Lebanese state institutions and sovereignty.” UNIFIL was pushed out by angry residents from Blida when it arrived at the village in the morning, hours after the Israeli attack took place. By late afternoon, it released a short statement saying it was “deeply concerned” by the attack.

The killing coincided with another Israeli incursion into the town of Odaisseh at dawn, during which a building was demolished. Israeli forces had attacked the Lebanese army twice on Wednesday, first by firing near an army vehicle that intercepted them in Mjaidiyeh, and later by a drone-launched missile near a Lebanese army post in Dhayra. Later on Thursday, after the Blida attack, President Aoun told the army to respond to any attacks by the Israeli army on Lebanese citizens.

In a statement released after a meeting held in the same afternoon, Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc strongly denounced “the continuing and growing Israeli aggression against Lebanese civilians, not sparing the Lebanese Army.” The bloc criticized, in particular, “the international silence in the face of these violations of the cease-fire, the inability of the Lebanese authorities to assume their responsibilities and take effective measures to curb these aggressions, by lodging complaints with the UN Security Council and the competent international bodies.”

On the other side, commenting on the dawn operation in Blida, Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee stated on X that the army entered the village “as part of an operation to destroy Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure.” The army said it then “spotted a suspect inside the municipal building and took measures to detain him.” Adraee added that a “direct threat was identified, and gunfire was used to neutralize the threat, resulting in one casualty,” and that “details of the incident are currently under investigation.” He also claimed that the building “had recently been used for Hezbollah terrorist activities under the cover of civilian infrastructure.”

 

Ongoing strikes and violations: Israel has in the meantime intensified its targeted strikes in south Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. On Monday, October 27, the Israeli army released a video showing the drone strike that earlier targeted the town of Al-Bayyad in southern Lebanon. The footage, reportedly taken by an Israeli reconnaissance drone, depicts the moment of impact on the woodworking site where the strike killed Hassan and Hussein Suleiman, both identified as Hezbollah members. The Israeli army claimed the two were working to “restore and strengthen Hezbollah’s military capabilities” in the area.

After a day of relative calm, on Wednesday, five Israeli soldiers advanced into Lebanese territory and tried to intercept a Lebanese army vehicle as it passed near the English Cemetery area between Bastara and Majidiyeh – opening fire towards it, as a correspondent from Al-Akhbar reported, right before the Blida accident occurred.

Later on Thursday, another Israeli drone carried out a strike on the main road of the village of Harouf in the Nabatieh district – after targeting hills in Mahmoudieh, Damashkieh, and Jarmaq in the Jezzine district in the morning, as well as the Labouneh area in Naqoura.

Also on Thursday, shortly before 6 PM, an Israeli drone dropped an incendiary bomb on the woods near the Nabatieh village of Mahmoudieh, which was already targeted by Israeli jets earlier in the same day. Fires have broken out where the firebomb was dropped. The Ministry of Health has also provided an update regarding the Israeli drone strike on Shebaa that occurred around 4:30 on Thursday afternoon, hitting a shepherd’s house. Three people were injured in the attack, the ministry announced. 

On Friday, then, a strike on Kounine resulted in one death, Ibrahim Raslan, and one injury – while later in the same day, another drone targeted a motorcycle between Nabatieh and Shoukin, killing its driver, Hassan Ghaith. On Saturday, four other people were killed and three were critically injured in an Israeli strike targeting an SUV in Dawhat Kfarmaan, southern Lebanon. The victims were Jawad Jaber, Hadi Hamed, Abdallah Kheil, and Mohammad Kheil. And on Sunday night, new intense Israeli airstrikes targeted Wadi Zefta, in the Nabatieh area, and its surroundings. 

Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army has brought in reinforcements to the Mahafer plains, near the Bint Jbeil district village of Aitaroun, as well as bringing additional army vehicles into the area around the village of Khiam, in Marjayoun district. These maneuvers are part of the army’s efforts to counter Israeli incursions over the Blue Line and into Lebanese villages, after Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that the number of Lebanese soldiers in south Lebanon will increase to ten thousand before the end of the year. “It is the only guarantee to protect Lebanon and defend its sovereignty,” he stated.

 

The Syrian-Lebanese security file: Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar and Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaibani met in Bahrain on the sidelines of the 2025 Manama Dialogue to discuss “security cooperation” between their two countries, according to the state-run National News Agency (NNA). During the meeting, the two ministers discussed ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation.

Last Wednesday, a Syrian delegation led by General Abdel Kader Tahan, deputy Syrian Interior Minister, met with Hajjar, as well as the director general of the Internal Security Forces (ISF), General Raed Abdallah, and the director general of General Security, General Hassan Choucair. According to Hajjar, the purpose of these talks was to “review common issues such as the fight against drugs, common law crimes, border and passport management, as well as the fight against terrorism.”

In August, Syrian President Ahmad al-Shaara called for establishing “state-to-state relations with Lebanon,” noting that there cannot be a “geographic curse” between the two countries. A month later, President Joseph Aoun met his Syrian counterpart in Doha, on the sidelines of the Arab-Islamic summit. In early October, the visit of the Syrian Foreign Minister to Lebanon marked a new stage with the suspension of the work of the Lebanese-Syrian Higher Council and the decision to now limit bilateral exchanges to official diplomatic channels. Describing his visit as historic, Shaibani reaffirmed Damascus’ commitment to respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and the principle of non-interference in its affairs.

 

The diaspora vote: The legislative session at the Lebanese Parliament scheduled for Tuesday, October 28, failed to reach quorum. Only 64 MPs arrived at the building, and several of them refused to enter the chamber, preventing the session from officially starting.

As Lebanon approaches the May 2026 parliamentary elections, political tensions are rising over proposed changes to the electoral law, particularly regarding voting rights for expatriates. One camp supports amendments allowing Lebanese living abroad to vote in their home districts, while opponents insist on maintaining six reserved seats in district 16, arguing that expatriates wishing to vote should return to Lebanon.

The dispute contributed to the failure to reach a quorum for Tuesday’s parliamentary session, drawing attention to the following Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, where the electoral law was expected to dominate discussions.

After Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri declined to include a repeated urgent proposal in Parliament granting the diaspora the right to vote for all 128 parliamentary seats in their districts abroad, the issue became a topic of discussion in the Cabinet. President Joseph Aoun requested the postponement of the first and second items on the agenda, both of which pertain to diaspora voting. 

The agenda includes two competing bills: one from Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji seeks to abolish the six expatriate seats and permit overseas voting for all 128 MPs according to official electoral rolls, while Interior Minister Ahmad Al-Hajjar proposes updating Article 84 of the electoral law by replacing the magnetic ID card with a QR code system. The magnetic card currently exists only in the text of the law.

 

Drug trafficking and the camps: A drug dealer in the Rashidieh Palestinian refugee camp, southern Lebanon, surrendered a large quantity of narcotics and declared his repentance, according to a statement issued by the Palestinian National Security Forces on Sunday. The statement said the surrender took place on the same day, following the ongoing military operation in Beirut’s Shatila camp, which security officials indicated would expand to other Palestinian refugee camps as part of a wider effort to combat drug trafficking.

In Shatila, patrols have been deployed in cooperation with the Lebanese Army as part of recent anti-drug operations and a government plan to confiscate illegal weapons. Last week, a woman was found killed in Shatila in a “drug den” within the camp’s borders. The woman’s death came two days after the killing of Lebanese national Elio Abou Hanna by Palestinian gunmen in the same camp.

According to the statement from Rashidieh camp, “the individual expressed his full readiness to cooperate with the National Security Forces and renounced involvement in the drug trade,” described in the statement as a “dangerous scourge” that harms both Palestinian society and the national cause. The forces praised the man’s decision and urged others involved in drug dealing or use to come forward voluntarily and hand over any narcotics in their possession.

“We affirm our willingness to cooperate with everyone in order to protect our people and our community,” the statement said. “We consider every user a patient in need of treatment and are ready to help them recover so that we can rid ourselves of this dangerous affliction.”

In September, the Lebanese Army said it carried out a raid in Shatila camp targeting a drug warehouse, sparking clashes and leading to the arrest of 55 people. Those incidents come as Lebanese authorities, in parallel with Hezbollah’s disarmament process launched in early August, are also working to disarm Palestinian camps, where armed factions still maintain control of security.

 

Against independent media: Megaphone’s editor-in-chief Samer Frangie and director Jean Kassir were summoned by phone to appear before the Public Prosecution Office on Monday, following a request from Judge Tanos Saghbini, Attorney General at the Court of Cassation, the Lebanese independent media outlet reported.

The summons follows a complaint filed by attorney Ziad Hobeish, both in his personal capacity and on behalf of his two minor children, alleging charges including “forming a criminal gang, fabricating crimes, spreading false news, blackmail, intimidation, libel, slander and defamation.”

Colleagues Frangieh and Kassir were notified of the lawsuit by phone, contrary to standard procedure. The notice contained errors in their names, suggesting a rushed effort to exert judicial pressure on independent media in Lebanon. Public prosecutors are summoning journalists instead of referring cases to the Publications Court, using lawsuits as a tool to intimidate journalists and platforms that expose corruption and influence peddling.

 

In The Region 

The genocide continues: Over 100 Palestinians were killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza on Tuesday night, after Israel resumed vicious airstrikes on the strip over what it said were violations by Hamas. Gaza’s Ministry of Health said on October 29 that 104 people were killed by the heavy attacks, which began the night before. Forty-six children are among the dead. The Israeli strikes also injured 253 people. “In less than twelve hours, Israeli occupation forces have committed horrific massacres against civilians in the Gaza Strip, killing more than 100 people,” said Civil Defense spokesman Mahmoud Basal. “These massacres are being carried out before the eyes of mediators and the international community, which remains silent and incapable of taking any real steps.”

One of the deadliest strikes hit the Abu Dalal family home in central Gaza’s Nuseirat, killing 18 people, including women and children. Other attacks targeted tents in Al-Mawasi in the south and Tal al-Hawa in Gaza City. Israel announced on Wednesday that the ceasefire has been restored after a “series of powerful strikes.” The military said it targeted dozens of “terror targets.”

US President Donald Trump defended the deadly overnight strikes, while claiming that “nothing is going to jeopardize” the ceasefire. “They killed an Israeli soldier. So, the Israelis hit back. And they should hit back,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One. “Hamas is a very small part of peace in the Middle East, and they have to behave. They said they would be good, and if they’re good, they’re going to be happy, and if they’re not good, they’re going to be terminated,” he added. 

The night before, as Israel was bombarding civilians in Gaza, Vice President JD Vance said the “ceasefire is holding.” “That doesn’t mean that there aren’t going to be little skirmishes here and there. We know that Hamas or somebody else within Gaza attacked an IDF soldier. We expect the Israelis are going to respond, but I think the President’s peace is going to hold despite it,” he said. 

An Israeli soldier was killed in the southernmost city of Rafah on October 28. Israel claimed that resistance snipers shot the soldier in violation of the deal. Yet “Hamas affirms that it has no connection to the shooting incident in Rafah and confirms its commitment to the ceasefire agreement. The criminal bombardment carried out by the fascist occupation army on areas of the Gaza Strip constitutes a blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement that was signed in Sharm el-Sheikh under the sponsorship of US President Trump,” Hamas said in a statement, calling Israel’s overnight strikes a “terrorist attack.”

Prior to the killing of the soldier, Israel had been accusing Hamas of delaying the release of deceased captives still in Gaza. Hamas has denied this, and the Red Cross has confirmed that locating the remaining captives is extremely difficult due to the amount of rubble. International teams have been deployed to Gaza to aid in the search. 

 

The pretext of delay: On the same day, Israeli media reported that Netanyahu was holding urgent security consultations to discuss the issue of the Israeli bodies and the ‘response’ to the delay in their delivery. Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, Channel 12 Washington correspondent, reported that a senior Israeli official told him: “The meeting held by Netanyahu on the response against Hamas’ violation of the deal ended without any decisions at this stage. The IDF presented a package of possible responses, including the resumption of strikes in Gaza. Netanyahu concluded the meeting by noting that coordination with the US would be necessary to determine which steps could be taken.”

On the other side, Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya expressed the group’s determination to hand over the remains of Israeli hostages under the ceasefire agreement and prevent Israel from creating excuses to resume the war in the Gaza Strip. “We will not give the occupation a pretext to resume the war, and we handed over 20 Israeli prisoners in 72 hours after the ceasefire,” Hayya told Al-Jazeera in an interview late on Saturday.

The first phase of a ceasefire took effect in Gaza on October 10 under US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan. Phase one includes the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. The plan also envisages the rebuilding of Gaza and the establishment of a new governing mechanism without Hamas.

Since October 13, Hamas has released the 20 living Israeli hostages and returned the bodies of 16 others, leaving 12, mostly Israelis. Hayya added that more areas will be searched in Gaza on Sunday to find the remains of Israeli hostages.

Regarding the issue of Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons, Hayya said the efforts are ongoing to “end the suffering of all of them” despite Israel’s intransigence to disclose many of their names and identities.

“I told Witkoff and Kushner during our meeting that we are advocates of stability and that President Trump is capable of restraining the Israeli occupation,” the Hamas leader said. “We are not satisfied with the volume of aid entering the Gaza Strip,” he added. “Gaza needs 6,000 aid trucks a day, not just 600. The occupation is obstructing the entry of some materials into Gaza as if we were still in the middle of a war,” he said, calling on mediators to intervene to provide the entry of adequate amounts of humanitarian aid into the enclave.

Regarding the administrative arrangements under the agreement, Hayya affirmed that the Palestinian group has “no objection to any national figure residing in Gaza to manage the Strip.” “We want to move toward elections as a prelude to restoring national unity,” he added. Hamas and Palestinian factions agreed that the reconstruction of the war-torn Gaza will be run by a UN body, according to Hayya. He reiterated the group’s commitment to a UN peacekeeping and monitoring scheme to oversee the borders and the implementation of the ceasefire in Gaza.

Regarding the disarmament of Hamas, Hayya stressed that it is dependent on Israeli existence and aggression in the Gaza Strip. “If the occupation ends, these weapons will be turned to the state,” he said.

 

Washington’s ‘new Gaza’: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are pushing back against US President Donald Trump’s plan to construct roughly half a dozen residential regions on the eastern half of Gaza, which is currently under Israeli control, The Times of Israel reported on November 2. Citing two Arab diplomats familiar with the matter, the Israeli daily said that Trump and his real estate developer son-in-law, Jared Kushner, have proposed the plan to donors in the Gulf to build the “new Gaza” on the eastern side of the strip only, which is now under direct Israeli control.

Following the October 11 ceasefire agreement, Israeli forces withdrew to the east of a ‘Yellow Line’ drawn up during the negotiations to divide Gaza into two parts. Hamas remains in control of the territory to the west of the line. The partial withdrawal leaves Israeli forces in direct control of at least 53 percent of Gaza.

Trump’s plan to build residential areas in the Israeli-controlled east of Gaza reportedly envisions the Israeli army “gradually withdrawing to the other side of the Gaza border and leaving the Strip altogether,” The Times of Israel wrote. However, such a withdrawal is conditioned on the establishment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) for postwar Gaza, and the disarmament of Hamas.

“With those two conditions for continued Israeli withdrawal so difficult to meet, the US is not waiting to begin the reconstruction process,” The Times of Israel added – as the US wants the international force to deploy to the west of the Yellow Line, the area remaining under Hamas control. Washington also wants its Arab allies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to pay for the force. However, the diplomats stated that the wealthy Gulf states are pushing back on the plan, as are Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Turkiye, and Egypt, who are expected to provide troops.

These nations are reluctant to assist Washington without a clear UN mandate or agreement with Hamas to hand over its weapons, the two Arab diplomats said. They also want to first deploy their forces on the east of the line to replace Israeli troops. This information aligns with a previous Israel Hayom report, which revealed that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE had warned the US administration that they would not take part in Gaza’s reconstruction unless Washington enforced the ceasefire terms on Hamas and ensured the group’s disarmament.

On the other hand, Kushner plans to complete the construction of these areas within two years, even if Israeli forces have not withdrawn by then, the two diplomats briefed on the plan stated, although both concluded the timeline was “highly unrealistic.”

 

Francesca Albanese condemns: UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese told the General Assembly that 63 countries are complicit in Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Presenting her report ‘Gaza Genocide: A Collective Crime’ from South Africa on October 28, Albanese said those states have “fueled Israel’s genocidal machinery” by arming, funding, and shielding Tel Aviv as Gaza’s population is “bombed, starved, and erased.”

She identified the US as the core of Israel’s war economy, responsible for two-thirds of its arms imports and repeated Security Council vetoes protecting Tel Aviv from accountability. Germany, Britain, and other European states were cited for continuing arms sales “even as evidence of genocide mounted.”

Albanese condemned the EU for sanctioning Russia while remaining Israel’s top trading partner, and criticized Arab states that normalized ties with Tel Aviv as Gaza burned. She singled out Egypt for maintaining energy cooperation and closing the Rafah crossing, Gaza’s last humanitarian lifeline.

Her remarks provoked an outburst from Israeli envoy Danny Danon, who called her a “wicked witch.” Albanese replied, “If the worst thing you can accuse me of is witchcraft, I’ll take it. But if I had the power to make spells, I would use it to stop your crimes once and for all.”

The report urges states to suspend all military and trade deals with Tel Aviv and describes the genocide as a “collective crime” enabled by decades of western complicity.

 

Persecuting olive harvest: According to the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture and the Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission, the Israeli assault has caused at least $70 million in agricultural damage in the West Bank since the beginning of the year. These losses are the result of attacks by Israeli forces and settlers, including the burning and uprooting of trees, the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and the confiscation of tens of thousands of dunams of land, directly impacting 5,353 farmers.

Agriculture Minister Rezq Salimia launched the “Olive 2025” campaign to support olive harvesters after Israeli forces and settlers have destroyed over 15,000 olive trees since October 2024. Israel’s control over 60% of the West Bank hinders the establishment of agricultural projects and endangers the livelihoods of 200,000 Palestinian families who depend on farming for income.

At the same time, claiming they violated “military orders” and were affiliated with an agricultural organization “labeled as terrorist,” Israeli occupation authorities ordered the deportation of 32 foreign activists on Wednesday, following a complaint by the head of the Northern West Bank Settlements Council over their participation in olive harvesting alongside Palestinians.

The decision was made by Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Yariv Levin, who said that “the decisive action to expel the anarchists sends a clear message that there will be zero tolerance for violating the sovereignty of the state, incitement to terrorism and support for it.” The so-called “terrorist organization” in question is the Union of Agricultural Work Committees, a Palestinian non-governmental organization.

 

Haredim against conscription: On Thursday, October 30, Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jews took part in the “March of the Million” to protest the mandatory military service law the Israeli government is seeking to implement. The march was called in response to the recent arrest of yeshiva students who evaded service.

Tens of thousands of Haredi men covered the entrance to Jerusalem singing, clapping and holding signs saying they would rather go to jail. The current draft exemption given to the ultra-Orthodox has caused deep divisions in Israeli society, emerging as the most serious threat to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

Netanyahu relies on ultra-Orthodox parties to keep his government limping along, but the religious community’s attempts to pass a law to permanently exempt ultra-Orthodox Israelis from military service could sink his government and spark early elections.

Israel shut down the major highway at the entrance to Jerusalem and deployed more than 2,000 officers, as tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox thronged the streets. One teenager died at the largely peaceful protest after falling from a building under construction next to the protest, police said. The protest largely crippled the city, with roads closed and public transportation halted by the massive crowds.

Ultra-Orthodox Jews have been protesting conscription since the Supreme Court’s June 2014 ruling, which mandated their military service and prohibited financial aid to religious institutions whose students refuse to enlist.

 

In northeastern Syria: A US military cargo plane landed at Kharab al-Jir Airport in the northern countryside of Hasakah, Syria on Monday, October 27, delivering electronic devices, heavy weapons, and military personnel. The shipment arrives amid ongoing efforts by the US-led coalition to fortify positions in northeastern Syria, despite previous announcements of troop reductions and base closures.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the freighter was accompanied by an attack helicopter. This follows a similar delivery on October 21, which included air defense systems and heavy weapons. Approximately 2,000 US troops remain deployed across several bases in the region.

These developments highlight the US’ continued military presence and logistical support in Syria, raising questions about the future of its declared withdrawal plans.

 

SDF into the new Syrian army: The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have submitted to the International Coalition a list of around 70 commanders set to be integrated into the Syrian army and special brigades, as part of an ongoing process to formalize their role within Syria’s defense structure. 

Multiple sources told North Press that the list includes approximately 70 commanders who participated in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). According to one of the sources, the list covers the leaders of three military divisions set to join the Syrian Army: one in the Jazira region (Hasakah Governorate), another in the Euphrates region (Raqqa Governorate), and a third in Deir ez-Zor.

It also includes commanders of three special brigades under the General Staff, with SDF leaders accounting for roughly 30 percent of the staff. One of these brigades will focus on counterterrorism operations and coordinate closely with the Global Coalition across Syria. A Western source confirmed the SDF’s submission of the list, adding: “We hope the integration happens soon.”

On October 10, SDF Commander-in-Chief General Mazloum Abdi stated during the tenth anniversary of the SDF’s founding that the forces “will play a key role in building this new army and will be an integral and strong part of it,” and that SDF counterterrorism units will continue their work nationwide alongside other Syrian Army units.

On October 13, an SDF military delegation arrived in Damascus to discuss integration into the Syrian Army. Sipan Hamo, a member of the SDF’s General Command and military committee on integration, said the parties reached verbal understandings, but no signed agreements exist yet.

In July, US Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack told North Press that the SDF is an important partner for the US government, fought against ISIS, and is highly respected, adding that the SDF forces are capable of integrating into Syria and joining its army. 

 

Repealing the Caesar Act sanctions: A US State Department spokesperson said the Trump administration supports repealing the Caesar Act sanctions on Syria through the National Defense Authorization Act, which is being discussed by US lawmakers, Reuters news agency reported. “The United States is in regular communication with regional partners and welcomes any investment or engagement in Syria that supports the chance for all Syrians to have a peaceful and prosperous country,” the spokesperson said.

Several Saudi Arabian firms are planning billion-dollar investments in Syria as part of Riyadh’s drive to support the country’s recovery, though the US sanctions and a fragmented state apparatus remain key obstacles. In May, the kingdom hosted a landmark meeting between US President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, during which Trump announced plans to lift all sanctions on Syria. 

However, the most stringent restrictions, known as the Caesar sanctions – which imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Syria targeting individuals, companies and institutions linked to former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – can only be removed by an act of the US Congress, where lawmakers are split but expected to reach a decision before the end of the year.

 

British weapons in Sudan: British-made military equipment has been found on Sudanese battlefields in the possession of the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group accused of genocide, according to documents obtained by the UN Security Council. Items recovered from combat zones include UK-manufactured small-arms targeting systems and British-built engines used in armored personnel carriers, amid what the UN describes as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

The discovery has renewed scrutiny over Britain’s arms exports to the (UAE), which has been repeatedly accused of supplying weapons to the RSF. The findings also raise concerns about the UK government’s role in indirectly fueling the conflict, given its continued defense trade with the Gulf state despite earlier warnings.

New data shows that even after the UN was alerted to the possible transfer of British-made weapons to Sudan through the UAE, London continued approving export licenses for similar military equipment. Among these were British-built engines designed for UAE-manufactured armored vehicles.

 

The fall of El-Fasher: A senior UN official warned on Thursday that Sudan’s civil war has entered a new phase after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of El-Fasher in North Darfur, prompting fears of mass atrocities and further regional instability. In a briefing to the Security Council, Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, assistant secretary-general for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, said the situation in Sudan has “deteriorated even further,” with widespread suffering, new waves of violence, and escalating risks to civilians.

“After more than 500 days under siege, the city of El-Fasher in North Darfur has been captured by the Rapid Support Forces. Only small pockets of resistance remain. The fall of the city marks a significant shift in the security dynamics. The implications for the people of Sudan and the region are significant,” Pobee added, claiming that shifting military dynamics continue to shape the course of the conflict.

“The human cost is profound. The risk of mass atrocities, ethnically targeted violence and further violations of international humanitarian law, including sexual violence, remains alarmingly high across the country, and particularly in El-Fasher,” she added.

“The situation is simply horrifying,” Pobee said, adding that in the past week, the UN Human Rights Office has received credible reports of mass killings, summary executions and house-to-house searches as civilians attempted to flee. “In this context, it is difficult to estimate the number of civilians killed. Despite commitments to protect civilians, the reality is that no one is safe in El-Fasher,” she went on saying.

The UN official said violence has intensified in the Kordofan region, where the RSF recently captured the city of Bara. Pobee cited reports of reprisals and ethnically targeted killings, including the execution of five Red Crescent volunteers. She reiterated UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ call for an immediate ceasefire and renewed peace talks. She also condemned foreign interference and the flow of weapons and fighters into Sudan.

Pobee concluded with a sharp appeal for decisive international action, warning that the Council’s failure to respond meaningfully risks enabling further atrocities. “As the conflict reaches yet another critical point, we must intensify our call for an urgent and lasting solution. Reports and warnings about the unfolding catastrophe in El-Fasher have been issued for months. Thus far, the United Nations Security Council has not taken decisive action to prevent the situation from deteriorating. We must all play our part in helping to bring this devastating war to an end,” she said.

The conflict between the army and the RSF, which began in mid-April 2023, has claimed more than 20,000 lives and displaced 14 million people, according to the UN and local authorities.

 

Before Iraq dries: Iraq and Turkiye plan to sign an agreement regarding the joint management of water resources, the Iraqi News Agency (INA) reported on November 2, following a meeting between the two countries’ foreign ministers in Baghdad. “The main topic of the Turkish Foreign Minister’s visit was about water. We held extensive meetings in Ankara, and we reached understandings that were turned into a document, which will be signed within hours,” stated Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein during a joint press conference.

The Iraqi Foreign Minister added that “the first agreement of its kind between Iraq and Turkiye will regulate water management and relations between the two parties in this field.” “We will sign the first water agreement between the two countries with Iraq, and we hope that it will open the door to the development of Iraqi water infrastructure,” Turkiye’s Fidan stated, while thanking Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

In May 2025, Iraqi Minister of Water Resources Awn Dhiab Abdullah announced an agreement between Iraq and Turkiye to release 500 cubic meters per second of water from the Euphrates River each day. Abdullah explained during a press conference that joint committees with Turkiye and Iran are continuing to work to ensure Iraq’s water quotas. The minister pointed to “Iraq’s commitment to the framework agreement with Turkiye, which includes the implementation of infrastructure projects in the irrigation sector and ensuring the continuity of water releases.”

On Saturday, Iraq’s Parliamentary Committee on Agriculture and Water warned that the country is facing an environmental crisis, including worsening drought, water shortages, and rising pollution levels, which pose a direct threat to the country’s food and social security. Ankara has built several massive dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, causing water levels downstream in Iraq to drop significantly in recent years. 

Baghdad has long accused Turkiye of unfairly withholding water flowing to Iraq, which relies heavily on the rivers for agriculture and everyday use. But while Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources has predicted that unless urgent action is taken, the country’s two main rivers will be dry by 2040 – Ankara has justified withholding the amount of water it does by accusing Baghdad of wasting the resource.

 

What We’re Reading

A broken logic of statehood: Today’s parliamentary session is more than a procedural test. It is a mirror held up to a country that has forgotten what a state is supposed to be. The question is no longer whether Parliament meets quorum, but whether Lebanon still functions according to the logic of statehood. A system where authority is bound by responsibility, power by accountability, and institutions by legitimacy. The opinion of Ramzi Abou Ismail.

Deepening divide on expatriates’ voting: Lebanese expatriates living abroad had a significant impact on the 2022 parliamentary elections, but with elections looming next year, some politicians are trying to prevent this from happening again. As Lebanon goes to the polls next May in crucial parliamentary elections, Parliament speaker Nabih Berri blocked an amendment to the electoral law, further fueling parliamentary deadlock. The analysis of Rodayna Raydan.

I am Elio Abou Hanna: On Sunday, Elio Abou Hanna, a Lebanese young man, was killed at a checkpoint run by the “Palestinian Security Committee” at the entrance of the Shatila refugee camp in Beirut. Elio was driving his car in the eastern part of the camp, following GPS directions, when he entered a “dangerous zone” and failed to stop at a checkpoint. Joyce Bou Charaa’s comment.

A drift towards dangerous isolation: Despite mounting regional warnings, Lebanon’s leadership continues to hide behind slogans of “gradual implementation” of Resolution 1701 – while Hezbollah’s weapons, Palestinian arms, and Israeli strikes expose the state’s growing irrelevance.

Lebanon’s self-inflicted vulnerability: “Lebanon today finds itself trapped between a collapsing state and a militia that pretends to defend it,” commented Makram Rabah in his weekly opinion for NOW Lebanon. Each Israeli strike on Lebanese soil is not only a violation of sovereignty but also a stark reminder that the Lebanese state has long surrendered control of its own borders and destiny. The latest orders by President Joseph Aoun to the Lebanese Army to “respond to any violations” are commendable in form but hollow in substance – reactions to crises rather than acts of leadership.

More lives cut short: The killing of Elio Abou Hanna highlights Lebanon’s rising violence, unchecked weapons, and the state’s fragile authority. The analysis of NOW’s reporter Dana Hourany.

A reply to Tom Barrack’s Middle-Eastern sermon: Ambassador Barack’s sweeping remarks about the Levant – draped in the language of “bold action,” “momentum,” and “leapfrogging” – blur that line to the point of danger. They are not merely careless; they are counterproductive to American interests, corrosive to Lebanese sovereignty, and perilous for any realistic regional order. The opinion of Makram Rabah.