Lebanon faces a new period of turmoil, marked by regional power shifts, renewed street protests, a deepening Sunni political vacuum, and growing tensions with Iran, all while speculation rises over Saad Hariri’s political comeback amid calls for justice and national reform
Lebanon blocked two Iranian flights from landing in Beirut last week, citing U.S. warnings that Israel might target them, according to AFP. The U.S. cautioned that Israel could take military action, accusing Hezbollah of using the airport to transport weapons and money from Iran, despite denials from both Hezbollah and Tehran.
Hezbollah condemned the government’s decision, urging it to “reverse the ban” and “resist Israeli dictates,” according to the group’s media outlet, Al Mayadeen.
The flight bans triggered unrest on Friday, as protesters blocked the road to Beirut’s international airport. The Lebanese army responded with tear gas to disperse the crowd. Earlier, on Thursday, authorities had stopped another Iran-bound flight from departing for Beirut.
Following Hezbollah’s call for demonstrations, major roads, including the Cocody Bridge near the airport, were shut down. Addressing the crowd, Hezbollah Political Council member Mahmoud Qomati warned that “patience has limits,” vowing continued resistance against “Israeli and American pressure.”
Meanwhile, tensions flared further after protesters attacked a UNIFIL convoy on Friday night, injuring two peacekeepers, including senior commander Major-General Chok Bahadur Dhakal, who was en route to the airport after completing his mission in Lebanon.
Lebanese army intelligence arrested over 25 people in connection with the attack, with another individual detained by security services, Interior Minister Ahmad al-Hajjar announced after an emergency security meeting on Saturday.
UNIFIL condemned the assault, calling it a “flagrant violation of international law” that “may amount to war crimes.”
President Joseph Aoun denounced the violence, vowing that those responsible “will face justice” and that security forces would not tolerate efforts to destabilize the country.
In Lebanon
Israelis still here: Israeli forces attacked southern Lebanese towns, including Marwahin, Kfar Hammam, and Al-Habbariyeh, while kidnapping paramedics in Houla as displaced residents returned.Israel Hayom reported that Israel plans to fully withdraw within two days, but other outlets say it will retain control of five areas beyond the 18 February deadline. The withdrawal, delayed from January, was extended with U.S. backing after Israel accused Lebanon of failing to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure south of the Litani River.
Saudi backs up: Saudi Arabia voiced strong support for Lebanon’s efforts to safeguard its citizens and address the recent attack on UNIFIL peacekeepers. The kingdom expressed confidence in President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and the Lebanese army’s commitment to maintaining security and stability.
Emergency meeting: Lebanese authorities will meet Saturday following an attack on a UNIFIL convoy that injured deputy commander Chok Bahadur Dhakal. The incident occurred amid protests by Hezbollah supporters blocking Beirut airport roads after Lebanon barred two Iranian planes from landing. UNIFIL condemned the attack, demanding a swift investigation. The Lebanese Army vowed firm action, while Interior Minister Ahmad al-Hajjar visited the injured officers and denounced the violence. U.N. envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert called the attack “unacceptable,” warning it endangers U.N. peacekeepers working for Lebanon’s stability.
Israel and the Bekaa: On Sunday, an Israeli airstrike hit the Wadi el-Zayn area on the outskirts of Bodai in Lebanon’s Baalbek district. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that Israeli forces detonated an explosive device in the Labbouneh area of southern Lebanon’s western sector.
Naim Qassem and the Israeli withdrawal: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem insisted on Sunday that Israeli forces must fully withdraw from Lebanese territory by February 18, in line with a U.S.-brokered truce reached in November. The agreement initially set a 60-day withdrawal period, later extended to February 18. Despite the deadline, Israel has requested to maintain troops at five posts in southern Lebanon, according to Reuters. In a televised speech, Qassem rejected any exceptions, stating: “Israel must withdraw completely on February 18—no pretexts, no five points. This is the agreement.”
Is Hariri back?: Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri declared the return of the Future Movement to political life on the 20th anniversary of his father Rafic Hariri’s assassination. The announcement marks the end of a three-year political hiatus for Hariri and his party. Addressing a large crowd gathered at Martyrs’ Square in Beirut from across the country, Hariri emphasized the party’s commitment to the principles of his late father: upholding the Taif Agreement, state-building, and institutional reform. He reaffirmed the party’s call for a strong state with no weapons outside state authority.
In The Region
Palestinians not allowed: While Israelis celebrated the return of captives from Gaza, Palestinians were barred from holding similar homecomings for prisoners freed by Israel. Tensions flared after the release of Ashraf Zghair, 46, who had served 23 years in prison. When family and neighbors gathered to celebrate his return on January 25, Israeli authorities arrested his brother Amir, a father of four. Mounir Zghair, Ashraf’s father and spokesperson for the Jerusalem Prisoners of War Association, denounced the arrest, stating: “There is no legal basis for my son’s detention. We were never informed of any rules we were violating.”
US forces and Al Qaeda: The U.S. military announced on Sunday that it had killed a senior Hurras al-Din official in an airstrike in northwest Syria the previous day. U.S. Central Command identified the target as a top finance and logistics figure within the al-Qaeda affiliate but provided no further details. The strike is part of ongoing U.S. efforts to disrupt the operations of Hurras al-Din.
Syrian President visits Idlib: Syria’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa made his first visit to Idlib province on Saturday since the rebel assault led by his group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), overthrew Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8. Al-Sharaa toured Idlib city and several IDP camps housing those displaced by Assad’s regime, according to Syrian news agency SANA. He later traveled to Aleppo province to meet with local officials. The unannounced visit to Idlib surprised many, with sources suggesting it marks the start of a broader tour of Syria.
Russian talks: Russian and U.S. officials will meet in Riyadh on Tuesday to discuss bilateral ties and efforts to end the Ukraine war, the Kremlin confirmed. At President Putin’s request, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and aide Yuri Ushakov will meet U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to explore peace talks and a potential Putin-Trump meeting. Rubio, arriving from Israel, will be joined by national security adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The plan for Gaza: Arab states face pressure over Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal. During a tense Oval Office visit, Jordan’s King Abdullah avoided endorsing the plan while maintaining ties with Trump. Meanwhile, Egyptian “security sources” signaled that President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi would decline a Washington visit if Gaza displacement remains on the agenda. Though likely aimed at domestic audiences, the move underscores the difficulty Trump faces in gaining support from key U.S. allies.
What We Are Reading
Hariri, Salam, and the Sunni vacuum in Lebanon: Political psychologist Ramzi Abu Ismail writes about Lebanon’s emerging Sunni political crisis, which has largely been overlooked. Following Saad Hariri’s withdrawal from politics and the lack of clear Sunni representation in the new government, many Sunni-majority rural areas are becoming politically marginalized. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s non-sectarian approach, while aiming for unity, has inadvertently left a leadership void among Sunnis, particularly in rural areas. This growing political vacuum could push parts of Lebanon’s Sunni population toward external influences, such as Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan or Syrian figure Ahmad Sharaa (Joulani).
Activism or aid denied?: Journalist Rodayna Raydan writes about the ongoing struggles of displaced residents in southern Lebanon, many of whom have returned to their villages despite widespread destruction. While some choose to sleep in tents as a form of protest against Israel’s occupation, others are attempting to repair their homes with limited resources, frustrated by insufficient aid from Hezbollah for reconstruction. With the February deadline for Israeli withdrawal looming, many refuse to accept the ceasefire extension as legitimate, opting instead for activism to pressure the Lebanese government and international community for their return. In her interview with Mariam from Khiam, Raydan captures the complex emotions of returning to a village that no longer feels like home, blending grief, relief, and frustration.
A new Lebanese entente for a new Middle East: Journalist Maan Barazy writes about Lebanon’s new government, which faces major financial, political, and economic challenges amid regional upheaval. He notes how the October 7 war reshaped alliances, with Israel’s offensives and Syria’s turmoil altering the regional balance. Barazy also highlights global backlash to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. He stresses that Lebanon’s political instability, corruption, and unclear policies hinder foreign investment, underscoring the need for urgent reforms to address the country’s crises.
Hariri’s assassination anniversary: With Assad fallen and his killers gone, has justice finally been served?: Journalist Rodayna Raydan writes about the shifting political landscape following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the death of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. For many Lebanese, these events symbolize a form of justice for Rafik Hariri’s assassination, marking the fall of figures seen as threats to Lebanon’s sovereignty. Raydan notes growing speculation about Saad Hariri’s potential return to politics, as some view his comeback as a continuation of his father’s legacy. Hariri, celebrating Assad’s fall on social media, recalled the long fight for freedom from dictatorship. The piece also highlights the 2020 Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s conviction of Hezbollah operative Salim Ayash for Hariri’s murder.
