Three-time former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri stood before a small crowd gathered in a room at the al-Wasat House on Monday, January 24, tears in his eyes, as he made an announcement that took many by surprise. After nearly 17 years of heading the main Sunni political force in Lebanon, the Future Movement, and less than four months before the general elections in Lebanon he announced his retirement from politics.
“As a matter of assuming responsibility, and because I am convinced that there is no room for any positive opportunity for Lebanon in light of Iranian influence, international confusion, national division, sectarianism and state weariness, I announce the following,” Hariri stated emotionally. “First, suspending work in political life and calling on my family in the Future Movement to take the same step.”
“Rafic Hariri’s project can be summed up in two ideas: firstly, preventing civil war in Lebanon, and secondly a better life for the Lebanese,” the Sunni leader said solemnly. “I succeeded in the first, but I was not destined to succeed enough in the second.”
Hariri’s announcement sent shockwaves throughout Lebanon with the veteran politician’s allies accepting his decision, but also expressing regret as it would severely harm the political opposition to Hezbollah and its allies.
“Hariri’s decision means releasing the hand of Hezbollah and the Iranians, and his decision is very sad, and we lose a basis for independence and moderation,” the Druze leader Walid Joumblatt said soon following Hariri’s announcement.
According to Hariri, he is retiring from political life due to Iranian influence in Lebanon and the lack of effort being made to combat the worsening situation.
But Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, argues that his reasoning may be much simpler than that.
“He took this decision because the Saudis are now opposed to him,” Young told NOW. “He has no regional sponsor and he has no money.”
Going it alone
When Rafik Hariri, Saad’s father, became prime minister of Lebanon in the 1990s following the end of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war, it was partially due to an understanding between the Saudis and Syrians and that was, in a way, given approval by the United States.
The elder Hariri proceeded to create a massive movement that aimed at representing the Lebanese Sunni sect that garnered wide support from the community until his eventual assassination in February 2005.
Following his father’s murder, Saad took over the mantle of political leadership and continued pushing his father’s legacy under the banner of the Future Movement, the main political party in the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition.
While it was initially popular, it has increasingly lost support over the years, going from 31 MPs in the 2009 elections to only 20 in the following election in 2018.
In addition, Hariri has lost the support of the Saudi monarchy. In part, this is due to an incident in 2017 where Hariri was detained while on a trip to Saudi Arabia and forced to resign on national television all the while taking uncharacteristically combative language against Iran.
Hariri was eventually released with the help of outside pressure on the Saudi government and rescinded his resignation upon returning to Beirut, but his relationship with the Kingdom never recovered.
He has also begun running low on money. Future TV was forced to shut down and Al-Mustabal, Arabic for the future, ceased its print publication and only continued publishing online after not being able to continue funding their operations in 2019. Both were owned by Hariri.
All of this has put Hariri in an uncomfortable position as a political leader. He could try to run again, but would likely lose even more seats as he does not have the funding nor the support from the Gulf like he once did, Young said.
The situation in Lebanon is deteriorating so fast and if you don’t send an ultimatum and say that with drastic movement like Saad Hariri did, then, things are going to complete destruction very soon for the whole country.
“In other words, if he wants to participate in elections, he has no money to finance a campaign. With the Saudis not wanting him to stand [in the election], he is very vulnerable,” Young told NOW.
“I think it was a combination of factors that made it untenable for him. All the more so as he probably anticipated that he would lose more seats in Parliament. For a variety of reasons, this is the time. He just couldn’t sustain all of the negatives.”
Young also says that he has heard rumors that the United Arab Emirates government would allow Hariri to live and work in their country but only as long as he left his political life behind him.
For Mustafa Allouch, a former MP for Tripoli and deputy head of Future Movement, this is all about sending a message to Hezbollah that things need to change or else the country will continue to collapse.
“The situation in Lebanon is deteriorating so fast and if you don’t send an ultimatum and say that with drastic movement like Saad Hariri did, then, things are going to complete destruction very soon for the whole country,” Allouch told NOW.
The impact that such an announcement will have on the upcoming elections is not lost on Allouch who believes that extraordinary measures are needed. He challenged anyone who thinks that they could fill the gap that the Future Movement is leaving to go ahead and try.
“We are trying to form a real shock to the political community in Lebanon to tell them that we are a sick society, a society that is going to its demise unless we make drastic moves at the national and regional level,” the former politician stated. “This is what we aim for for the time being. And whoever wants to fill in the gap is welcome to try. We’ll see what happens.”
Young, however, does not even think that anyone will have the opportunity to fill this gap as he believes that the planned May elections are almost certainly going to be postponed.
Pushing the vote
Even though the Future Movement may have lost seats in the last election, it is still widely considered to be the largest Sunni political party in Lebanon with Hariri often deemed the country’s “Sunni leader”.
Now, without Hariri and the Future Movement, there is a gap in Lebanon’s politics that few are likely to be able to fill and, given the circumstances and the current situation, Young does not believe that any of the others in the Sunni leadership are likely to run in the election either.
“The big question is that you have Hariri who is not going to be a candidate in the elections and [former PM] Tammam Salam may not be a candidate in the elections,” the analyst stated.
“I find it hard to believe that under these circumstances [former PM] Fouad Siniora would be a candidate in elections. And, given the situation, I don’t think [ PM] Najib Mikati would be a candidate in elections. We may be very well heading towards a situation where the four former prime ministers, and I don’t count [Hassan] Diab because Diab doesn’t really have any Sunni credibility, will not participate.”
Even when it comes to Sunni politicians who were able to win seats with the support of the larger Sunni leaders, they might now be under pressure to not run either as it would be nearly impossible for them to rally any significant support as well as to show solidarity with the leadership.
This, according to Young, would lead to a “de facto Sunni boycott” of the elections.
We are very close to some kind of postponement because what we are going to see in the coming weeks, we have to see what the reaction is going to be among Sunni politicians. If you have a larger and larger number of Sunnis saying that they don’t want to participate, then you have a de facto boycott.
However, Allouch says that those who supported the Future Movement and Hariri are free to do as they please, even if that means voting for another candidate or even refusing to vote in the elections.
“It’s up to them,” he said. “We’re a movement, not a party. We have partisans but, essentially, it is a movement and we have no authority on the will of those who feel that they are part of this movement. They will choose on their own whatever they feel is acceptable for them.”
Should the Sunnis in Lebanon refuse to take part in the election, it would force the speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, to advocate for postponing the elections.
“We are very close to some kind of postponement because what we are going to see in the coming weeks, we have to see what the reaction is going to be among Sunni politicians. If you have a larger and larger number of Sunnis saying that they don’t want to participate, then you have a de facto boycott,” Young stated.
“Under those circumstances, [Parliament speaker and leader of Shiite Amal Movement Nabih] Berri has already made it clear that this would be considered a threat to the system of coexistence in the country and probably he would push for a postponement of elections. Deep down, I think most of the political parties would want it that anyway.”
Without a Sunni bloc running in the elections, it could send a strong message to the armed Shiite party Hezbollah that the Sunni community is no longer going to work with them and, with the Christian community also becoming increasingly critical of Hezbollah, it puts the group in a precarious situation where they will have to tread carefully going forward.
Sending a message
Hezbollah and the Future Movement have always been at odds.
This mutual opposition began following the assassination of Rafik Hariri, with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon linking the assassination to Hezbollah. A Hezbollah operative was convicted for the killing in 2021. Moreover, May 2008 has seen Hezbollah supporters and Future Movement partisans fighting on the streets of Beirut over Hariri’s cabinet attempting to dismantle Hezbollah’s private telecommunication network.
As time went on and as Hezbollah’s power and influence in the country continued to grow, their relationship soured even more after the October 17, 2019 uprising.
The Future Movement has also been at the forefront of criticism targeting Hezbollah’s weapons, as the Iran-backed group remains the only armed political party in Lebanon despite several UN Resolutions banning any armed militia to operate in Lebanon.
“We are not facing a political group. We are not facing a reasonable group,” Allouch said. “We are facing a power which thinks that with martyrdom, with more killing, with more destruction they can still impose their will on everyone. And see what’s happening in Iraq, in Yemen, in Syria and definitely in Lebanon.”
It’s a phase of Sunni-Shiite disagreement over the Lebanese National Pact. It goes far beyond Hariri at this point. We’re really dealing with the National Pact. The Taif Agreement basically collapsed with the October 2019 protest movement.
Thanks to Hezbollah’s alliance with President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, the group has only been able to expand its influence in the country, even firing missiles at Israel from the southern border and being involved in a shootout on the streets of Beirut without facing any consequences or much political opposition.
However, by forcing Hezbollah to face the possibility of having no Sunni political party to work with, Hariri is forcing them to reevaluate the situation.
“Hezbollah is not the kind to compromise on its strategic objectives,” Young explained. “But it does pose a major strategic threat to Hezbollah because basically, the Sunnis have said ‘We are taking a break from the state. Run the country as you want but we’re not really involved. Whatever happens, you’re responsible.’”
There is also growing opposition within the Christian community towards Hezbollah.
Should Hezbollah begin to face pushback from both the Sunnis and the Christians, it would pose a “fundamental strategic threat” to Hezbollah.
“This is not something that you can resolve with assassinations or by military means,” Young stated. “It basically means that the Taif Agreement, which formalized Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system after the end of the civil war, is being seriously challenged. Therefore, the communities may need to think of a new system.”
If the Sunnis did allow Hezbollah to take the reins willingly, then it would have to come at a significant cost for Hezbollah, namely its weapons which is not something that it would give up easily.
“We’re maybe entering a new phase,” Young said. “It’s a phase of Sunni-Shiite disagreement over the Lebanese National Pact. It goes far beyond Hariri at this point. We’re really dealing with the National Pact. The Taif Agreement basically collapsed with the October 2019 protest movement.”
Rather than having to address this issue now since the Shiite party already faces steep opposition from the Sunni community and is starting to face criticism from the Christians, Young says that Hezbollah will push to have the elections postponed to avoid deepening the conflict.
“Hezbollah needs to sit down and look a little bit at where they are taking the country because we could be going in quite a dangerous direction if they don’t do so,” Young said. “But it is very likely that they will not sit down and look at where they are taking the country.”
Nicholas Frakes is a multimedia journalist with @NOW_leb. He tweets @nicfrakesjourno.
